Tesla Founder & CEO Elon Musk interview, March 2015

[aurfalien]

Well my response was to Harry. But since you bring it up, what is the best fuel you've experimented with in terms of torque, MPG, and general power?

Something like if you had your way, we'd be using such and such.

Edited April 16, 2015 by aurfalien

[aurfalien]

Anyone can make a "documentary," regardless of the facts.

If a 100 mpg carb ever existed, why have we never seen one in operation? Ever????

I see my point was lost, again. Oh well.

And you can't quantify we so no need to use it in an argument.

[Harry P.]

I see my point was lost, again. Oh well.

In a previous post you said "The 100MPG carb was out very briefly in the 70's"...

I must have slept through that, because I was here in the '70s and don't remember ever seeing any proof of a "100 mpg carburetor." All I remember seeing were claims of such a device.

And oh, BTW... I was once abducted by aliens. No, really, I was! Swear to God!

[Ace-Garageguy]

Well my response was to Harry. But since you bring it up, what is the best fuel you've experimented with in terms of torque, MPG, and general power?

Something like if you had your way, we'd be at such and such.

If I'd had my way, we'd have begun converting the vehicle fleet to CNG in the mid-1990s. An IC engine optimized for CNG can produce more power, with better fuel mileage, making fewer emissions than gasoline. It's cheap, plentiful, and we have a lot of it right here in the good ol' USA. The infrastructure to refuel cars already widely exists, as any house that has natural gas for cooking or heat can be easily equipped with a compressor to fuel a car overnight. Engines also last much longer running CNG, because there's no cylinder wash-down or oil dilution like you get with liquid fuels (gasoline or diesel). It's not particularly difficult to convert a car to run on the stuff...people have been running vehicles on propane since the 1930s...and it's a natural interim segue into the replacement of hydrocarbon fuels with pure hydrogen derived from wastewater, rainwater, and solar-derived electricity.

But the momentum to do it petered out when it was discovered by utility companies that it was marginally cheaper to build nat-gas fired plants than clean up existing coal-fired plants, and trade carbon credits like monopoly money. So now, instead of running our cars on clean and plentiful CNG, and getting a large part of our electricity from clean-coal, we're burning nat-gas in prodigious quantities to produce electricity...to, in part, recharge electric vehicles.

Stupid, and wasteful.

Edited April 16, 2015 by Ace-Garageguy

[aurfalien]

Ace;

Wow, I had no idea. I did notice a CNG movement earlier on in my youth and then noticed it vanish, seemingly over night.

Too bad because it sounds like it would have greatly benefited us. It would have changed life and made it better.

Harry;

So you only picked up on the carb thing in my 4th post of the topic having ~200 words in it? Nothing else, really? I'm a bit dismayed as I took a decent amount of time to write it.

However you're right, you must have been asleep prolly due to the abduction as they knock you out first. That way no one really thinks they've been abducted and such...

Edited April 16, 2015 by aurfalien

[unclescott58]

I'm surprised you guys have not commented on the comments made in the video about autonomous driving vehicles. Taking the ability away from humans to need to drive their cars and trucks. It sounded to me that if they can make the autonomous car 100% foolproof, they then expect it will be made illegal for us foolish humans to drive a car. We are too dangerous to be allowed to drive. A machine can and will do it better. This all may be true, but I hope I'm gone by that time. I love to drive. Having control over my car. Something about the way they're talk about the autonomous driving car unsettles me. I may be wrong about my feeling of discomfort in this idea. I have no fear of the technology not working right. I'm sure it will. But, is this really what we want in the long run?

Scott

Edited April 16, 2015 by unclescott58

[aurfalien]

Well, we prolly would have if there wasn't soo much fixation on my 100MPG carb.

However I'm with you on your comments.

I'm also unsettled hugely but there will be an audience for it. After a while some (prolly many as it will need wide scale adaption to make it profitable) ppl won't know how to get anywhere when the Sat/NAV/GPS glitches out. But that polite kid who heeded his wise parents well will be able too.

I remember all the important phone numbers but I'll wager quiet a few don't.

[Ace-Garageguy]

I'm surprised you guys have not commented on the comments made in the video about autonomous driving vehicles...I have no fear of the technology not working right. I'm sure it will...

How many times has your personal computer crashed? Or if not yours, how many of your friends' or acquaintances' computers crashed? Ever have IT problems at work? How many of you have had "computer" problems with your newer vehicles, or how many times has your new car been back to the dealer to have it's computer "reflashed" with software updates to fix glitches that were missed during development?

Even with the triple-redundancy of the computer-flight-controls in the F-35, if they all fail, the airplane falls out of the sky, as there's no way to fly it otherwise.

We're talking military-grade, combat-hardened stuff here...not some doofy little system in a car.

Somebody has run the numbers, and anyone living in reality KNOWS there WILL be failures. The real disquieting thought is that what's considered "acceptable losses" will probably be lower with machines doing the driving than with easily distracted average humans in command.

So rather than focusing on humans taking personal responsibility for driving themselves around, once again we're being "saved from ourselves", and as the man said, it's one more step into a future where a human is a waste of space and resources...because EVERYTHING can ultimately be done better by a machine...simply because WE got so lazy and dependent that we let it happen.

[Ace-Garageguy]

If you don't have one, or know anyone who has one, on what then do you base your belief in its existence?

That's getting dangerously close to a religious question...

[aurfalien]

The irony is that one day perhaps once a point is reached were machine cold efficiency, precision and total automation is the norm, then a desire to do things more human will emerge and be sought after. In other words the joy of simply being.

I say "Why not simply cut to the chase and enjoy being now."

This is feel is part of the human condition which is to move regardless of what direction.

However its never a matter of it will fail but when, just as Ace said. Its funny, I always get "My computer broke, but it worked just a few minutes ago!"

Dumb founded I reply "Well... every thing works until it doesn't."

Don't fear tech, fear how we implement it.

[Bernard Kron]

Some brief observations:

1) Technology has been plateauing for some time now with marginal productivity gains becoming increasingly small. So, even though Moore's law (that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years) still seems to hold, it's impact on the real world appears to be diminishing. This is equally true in other areas such as biotechnology. "Technology" as the word is used today is often trivial and marginal in its social impact (i.e. Apple Watch and self-driving cars). But it was only very recently that this same "technology" was enormous in its impact - for example the Internet as we know and use it today was barely extant 20 years ago. So the roll-off in impact has been surprisingly steep.

2) "Technology" has become quite expensive and complex to operate and maintain, and is often surprisingly crude and unsophisticated. We seem to have entered a kind of steam age. Even the simplest App seems to require relatively large teams of coders and programmers to keep it going. Where is the elegance and simplicity?

3) Much of modern technology is at risk of being unaffordable (i.e. high-speed internet, wireless voice/data and cable TV, etc.) and recent users are increasingly exiting the market by either cancelling services or simply stealing them. I think there is a cynical over-reliance on the eventual benefits of the network effect to justify what are nothing more than rent-seeking monopolies full of wasteful excess (i.e. iTunes, app stores and cloud-based software). There is also a well-established pattern of depending on economic subsidies to rush "not ready for prime time" business models to market in the hope of capturing "first to market" advantages.

4) Elon Musk is either incredibly foolish or incredibly courageous in his post-Paypal business endeavors. He's really "rolling the dice": Tesla, for example, is based not only on manufacturing attractive and well marketed electric automobiles, but on the implementation of a vast infrastructure of fast-charge facilities and rapidly evolving battery technologies, all of which he seems to be willing to take on within his own company, relying in the near-term on green energy subsidies to get him to critical mass. His space transport business, SpaceX, is based on a similar structure where he is dependent on government support in the near term while investing heavily in what he hopes will be breakthrough technologies. So, while the current Tesla models are largely for the well-off and self-indulgent with an environmentalist bent he is explicit in reaching far beyond this. Whether it's Tesla or SpaceX, he's hangin' it out there. But the observations I've made about recent trends in technology, if they're true, are certainly not helping him.

[dieseldawg142]

........

Edited May 11, 2018 by dieseldawg142

[Bernard Kron]

I'm surprised you guys have not commented on the comments made in the video about autonomous driving vehicles. Taking the ability away from humans to need to drive their cars and trucks. It sounded to me that if they can make the autonomous car 100% foolproof, they then expect it will be made illegal for us foolish humans to drive a car. We are too dangerous to be allowed to drive. A machine can and will do it better. This all may be true, but I hope I'm gone by that time. I love to drive. Having control over my car. Something about the way they're talk about the autonomous driving car unsettles me. I may be wrong about my feeling of discomfort in this idea. I have no fear of the technology not working right. I'm sure it will. But, is this really what we want in the long run?

Scott

How many times has your personal computer crashed? Or if not yours, how many of your friends' or acquaintances' computers crashed? Ever have IT problems at work? How many of you have had "computer" problems with your newer vehicles, or how many times has your new car been back to the dealer to have it's computer "reflashed" with software updates to fix glitches that were missed during development?

Even with the triple-redundancy of the computer-flight-controls in the F-35, if they all fail, the airplane falls out of the sky, as there's no way to fly it otherwise.

We're talking military-grade, combat-hardened stuff here...not some doofy little system in a car.

Somebody has run the numbers, and anyone living in reality KNOWS there WILL be failures. The real disquieting thought is that what's considered "acceptable losses" will probably be lower with machines doing the driving than with easily distracted average humans in command.

So rather than focusing on humans taking personal responsibility for driving themselves around, once again we're being "saved from ourselves", and as the man said, it's one more step into a future where a human is a waste of space and resources...because EVERYTHING can ultimately be done better by a machine...simply because WE got so lazy and dependent that we let it happen.

If afraid I was guilty of ignoring the OP. I reacted to the ensuing discussion rather than the video. The conversation with Musk is very interesting in that it embodies a kind of asocial smugness, as if we would all be better off if we were coddled by technology. So when they have the little banter at the end about "I just hope there's something left for us humans to do" and the fact that they would both rather drive their own personal Teslas in "insane mode", it's really rather elitist of them since they would reserve that kind of unregulated self-control for themselves. Appliances for the masses, sports cars for you and me... except that Musk held that perhaps non-autonomous cars would eventually be banned.

But the things I listed earlier still hold. The world they envision in their discussion is expensive, complex and concentrates control of the technologies into relatively few hands. Perhaps they sense how untenable that may prove to be and that in turn would explain why Musk was so anxious to emphasize how quickly they can bring this vision to market. For example he represented that there would be a delay before autonomous cars would be allowed to be unleashed by regulators - a whole 3 years of delay, as if that were a long time!

[aurfalien]

Wow Bernard, I'd have to say well said.

I think the phrase is "Do as I say, not as I do".

By the way, a great song; Dyers Eve, touches on this very point, very poignant.

It does seem to me that he'd rather be a VAR to VARs of sorts and supply energy storage rather then cars.

Electric motor is one thing but I think its grander and more broad than that.

At any rate Google will prolly buy PayPal for Google Wallet service to compete with Apple Pay. Yes its between the Gargantuas (recall the Japanese movie from way back).

Now who is the green Gargantua and who is the brown one?

Edited April 20, 2015 by aurfalien

[1930fordpickup]

Much the same could have been said of cars in general when they were first available...they were primarily not-too-practical toys for rich folks to flaunt their wealth with.

And computers? Something with a tiny fraction of the power of a smartphone would have cost millions.

Most complex manufactured products follow a similar trajectory.

Time will tell.

I understand these points.

One thing is it has been over a hundred years for electric cars , how much time do we need?

[Scott Colmer]

A bit of a wandering thread, but all good stuff. 100 mpg carburetor? I'm not seeing it. It will take more than a magic fossil fuel delivery system to increase the efficiency of the internal combustion engine and still maintain a minimum amount of power. But it seems like you all put that one to rest.

So the point of the video was AI in cars. Yep - I see that coming. If art predicts life, I Robot is right there.

So here are my predictions:

. Say good bye the the profession of cab driver. Imagine a fleet of cars, many quite small for personal local travel that can be accessed and paid for through a phone app.

. Car ownership will be based on the desire to drive, rather than the need. Most of the "e-taxis" would be electric because most travel is well within battery range.

. Look for lots more solar power and electric energy storage.

. I don't think "free driving" will go away soon. But be sure there will be a lot of computer navigation and assisted driving. To the point of the video, there may be a time where free drive in certain situations is outlawed.

I experienced assisted driving when driving a fully loaded Caddy. It vibrated whenever I neared the lane markers or when another car was in my blind spot. Pretty cool. BTW - That car was own by my wife grandmother and it was recently crashed with her in it. I don't know what caused the incident, but all that assist stuff can't stop everything - yet.

We just recently added Tesla stock to our retirement portfolio. It still bounces around like a ping pong ball, but so far I have been pretty good with my picks. I'm planning to hold it for a long time.

I bought Tesla because I love the car and hope to own one someday. And... Elon Musk casually mentioned he might market energy storage systems for home solar systems. That will be a huge market when the electric companies start charging for moving the power you create on your roof.

Scott

Edited April 20, 2015 by Scott Colmer