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Gas prices... how low will they go?


Harry P.

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Gas prices will go low enough for every American and his dog to run out and buy an 18MPG pig of an SUV or way more truck than he needs...because you know that because gas is cheap now, it will be cheap forever and ever and we'll never never run out...and as soon as gas-hog-sales begin to taper off, the fuel prices will rise to $5 per gallon, and everyone who bought a pig will have to run out and buy an itty bitty electric POS., and get 12 cents on the dollar trade for the big'un.

Business as usual. ;)

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The prices will stay low till another refinery blows up, or another brush fire war breaks out in the middle east, or some OPEC official has a bad day and stubs his toe tripping over a lobbyist, then the prices will shoot through the roof.(again) Big oil won't tolerate this level of pain for long. They'll figure out a way to stick it to us again. And your 100% right about the buying bigger vehicles thing. Some people need bigger vehicles, but I got rid of mine when gas hit close to 4 bucks a gallon. Never again....:angry:

Edited by bismarck
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The drop in oil prices has to do with a reduced demand and an increase in supply. With Iran now able to sell oil, expect prices to stay low for awhile, unless of course there is a skirmish in the Middle East. Part of the price drop also had to do with OPEC countries flooding the market with oil to drop prices so the US would cut back on domestic production as they weren't thrilled we were able to become more energy independent.

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Car manufactures have been "pushing" big vehicles for years, especially the pickup trucks. First it was the extended cab and 4WD, and now it is the Crew cab with more doors and a trunk without a lid. Of course it is 4WD also and has every option other than a toilet paper dispenser. The dealers aren't too happy when I walk into a showroom lookin' for a truck.

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The way I understand it is that the fracking oil we have been pulling out of the tar sands and shale is increasing the world supply, thus driving the price down. The downside is that that oil is expensive to extract. So the middle east increases output and supply to keep cost per barrel down thus making it less of a profitable or non profitable deal to extract sands and she oil in the US. Hence the increase in oil jobs unemployment in the US.

It's a stand off of sorts.

My question is, are the model manufactures benefiting from the reduced material costs?

 

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Don't forget that Iran is now able to sell more crude and I think that has a bigger effect on the price of oil. Fracking has slowed because it is no longer profitable with the lower crude prices. China's product exporting is down and that means they need less crude also. There are many components as to how the price of oil moves up and down, On the dollar difference on the price of gas between say California and the mid-west has to do with the state taxes. This and many other economic problems are why I left California 20 years ago. They were just taxing everyone to death. Right now the difference between Kansas and Missouri gas prices is about 5 cents per gallon. Missouri has some of the lowest gas taxes in the nation, but the Legislators are moving quickly now since gas is so low so that they can raise the tax on gas. It is very common for people here in the Kansas City Metro area to drive from the Kansas side a couple of blocks into Missouri just to save the 5 cents a gallon.   

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Without getting too political, much has been said by many people in finance that the price is being artificially lowered by the Middle East for a variety of reasons. 

Despite a lower demand for oil in many markets, they are over producing anyway.  This is making the cost per barrel of oil so low, the US fracking industry can't compete, causing a majority of operations to shut down just after they really got going and helped to make the US less dependent on foreign oil. 

So don't be surprised if once most of those new US sources of oil production shut down/get mothballed, the Middle East influences the market and the price per barrel shoots back up again. 

Another point of interest, the low oil/gas prices have NOT helped the US economy, which defuddles some folks.  Recently, someone explained that while Mister Electrician is now saving $500 a week in gas for his van, that saved money is being spent on foreign sourced products, thus not helping the US economy directly.  This can be argued, of course, but when you think about it, it does make sense. 

Just sayin'...  ;)

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The government continues to mandate a minimum MPG per class of vehicle, and it's going to continue to get harder to hit the mark. So we'll never see the 15mpg gas guzzler again. Regardless of gas prices, the reason for this is to reduce CO2 emissions. Climate change is the name of the game we're playing now. OPEC has backed off prices because it has to make future domestic drilling less appealing to American consumers, and less financially appealing to American companies. If it stays low, the population will stop screaming for relief which is what prompted American companies to find domestic sources. Between the US and Canada, there enough untapped sourses that we could tell Opec to shove it where the sun don't shine. But with the prices low, it's not worth the cost of exploring.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/autos/story/2012-08-29/fuel-standards/57383050/1

 

Edited by Jantrix
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The bottom line is that oil is STILL a finite resource, and with prices-at-the-pump being low, the American public has zero incentive to give a rat's rear about expecting a coherent long-term energy policy from this or any replacement administration. And if an energy policy can't be spun into a party platform plank, it's ignored by everyone. This isn't a political rant...it's reality.

We're going to keep on burning the stuff like there's no tomorrow, and one day we'll wake up and be facing gas prices that Europe has had for decades.

 

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Our gas is 66.9c/L. That would be 66 cents per litre. By my math, that's about $2.49 per gallon. And this is the cheapest it's been here for over 10 years. Last summer, gas hovered around $1.10/L (about $4.16/gal). Diesel is at 72.9/L, only cost me $51 to fill the truck this morning. Diesel normally over a buck a litre.

Frustrating that gas is so much cheaper down south.

The best part of this is that the refineries are literally a 10 minute drive from where I'm sitting right now. Forget exporting our fuel and oil. We should be closing the pipes and roads to the borders and stockpiling for ourselves. Or at the very least, we crank up the costs for the other countries we sell to.

Edited by iamsuperdan
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Honestly Harry, our gas taxes have been a joke for a looooong time compared to every other country in the world. I think the federal tax is $.19/gal, as is the Illinois State Gas/Gasahol Tax. Not sure about in DuPage or Kane County, but if you fill up on Cook County, that bumps it a bit more.  State tax alone, we're actually cheaper than Iowa ($.21) or Wisconsin ($.32.9?!)!

http://www.illinoisgasprices.com/tax_info.aspx

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Honestly Harry, our gas taxes have been a joke for a looooong time compared to every other country in the world. I think the federal tax is $.19/gal, as is the Illinois State Gas/Gasahol Tax. Not sure about in DuPage or Kane County, but if you fill up on Cook County, that bumps it a bit more.  State tax alone, we're actually cheaper than Iowa ($.21) or Wisconsin ($.32.9?!)!

http://www.illinoisgasprices.com/tax_info.aspx

No kidding.  Here in New Zealand, excise duty amounts to 67.13 cents per litre, equivalent to approximately US$2 per gallon, plus sales tax of 15% on the overall cost.

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