Will Slow Down of Cottage Industry Slow the Hobby?

[Lunajammer]

While the staple model kit makers soar to new heights with new offerings and repops, the staple cottage industry seems to be entering the retirement home. It's been easy to take for granted our aftermarket super heroes like the Modelhaus, Billy Gooche decals, Fred Cady and many more. But the business is taxing on the best of them and as they age, at some point they have to put their priorities on life challenges and desires bigger than the hobby. 

Do the new industry offerings offset the cottage industry losses in terms of hobby health or does the quiet exit of after-marketers foretell the quiet exit of modelers in general? What impact is the loss of after-marketers having on your hobby involvement?

[StevenGuthmiller]

While the staple model kit makers soar to new heights with new offerings and repops, the staple cottage industry seems to be entering the retirement home. It's been easy to take for granted our aftermarket super heroes like the Modelhaus, Billy Gooche decals, Fred Cady and many more. But the business is taxing on the best of them and as they age, at some point they have to put their priorities on life challenges and desires bigger than the hobby. 

Do the new industry offerings offset the cottage industry losses in terms of hobby health or does the quiet exit of after-marketers foretell the quiet exit of modelers in general? What impact is the loss of after-marketers having on your hobby involvement?

I think you have to take into consideration the giant swell of after market producers over the past couple of decades.

Granted, some are leaving the scene, but when you look back 20 years & see that there were very few after market producers & how many have popped up since then, it only makes sense that a few would eventually fall by the wayside.

I think that it's just a natural ebb & flow.

Now if you ask me if I think that modeling in general is slowly dying off, my answer would be yes.

But I think with new technologies like 3-D printing coming onto the scene, we will continue to see some new after market goodies coming, especially in the resin part of the hobby.

Resin may begin to go away, but I look forward to what may be headed our way with the refinement of 3-D printing.

 

Steve

[cobraman]

Will people ever be offering 3D printed bodies like resin ones are now ? Not that versed on the 3D thing but wonder if they are ever offered what would it cost to print say a body as compared to molding a resin one ?

[gtx6970]

No simple answer.

But next time  your at a swap meet . Look around . A LOT of grey hair old farts and not near as many young guns .

In do time the hobby will die back considerably, when is any ones guess. But my gut tells me in the 30 years it'll die way off

 

[MrObsessive]

No simple answer.

But next time  your at a swap meet . Look around . A LOT of grey hair old farts and not near as many young guns .

In do time the hobby will die back considerably, when is any ones guess. But my gut tells me in the 30 years it'll die way off

 

I couldn't help but notice the very thing you mentioned at a local show recently. Some young folks, but nowhere near as many as the 50+ crowd. 30 years from now? I'll be well into my 80's and not quite so sure I'll be building then let alone still walking the earth.

Time will tell however how the hobby will evolve, but like most things it may not be the way we see it today.

[Lunajammer]

But I think with new technologies like 3-D printing coming onto the scene, we will continue to see some new after market goodies coming, especially in the resin part of the hobby.

This is the biggest question mark of the future. If (when) it becomes very high def, user friendly and economical it could be a whole new boon.

[Johnt671]

This may happen both in model cars and 1to1's also. I go to a lot of car shows and the owner are 95 % older guys. Not many young folks are showing up. Some will come and walk around and talk. I think the bottom will drop out of both hobby fields unless the younger folks interests change as they age.

 

I guess that being older we have more money to spend on on modeling than we had when we were young I had a hard choice to make with my allowance, buy another .98 cent model or a couple of new paint colors and brushes. Now I've got a few hundred bucks worth of models waiting to be built, a couple of hundred bucks worth of paint, another couple of hundred in modeling tools. I think nothing of spending 50 to a hundred from resin casters.

It's interesting to note that most people are leaving because they get stressed out trying to meet the demandfor their products', not that they are losing business.

Edited September 19, 2016 by Johnt671

[Ace-Garageguy]

Will people ever be offering 3D printed bodies like resin ones are now ? Not that versed on the 3D thing but wonder if they are ever offered what would it cost to print say a body as compared to molding a resin one ?

The drawback to 3D printing being a lifesaver for the hobby is simply that it takes someone with a very unique mindset AND skillset to make good parts using 3D, just as it takes a special combination of interest and skills to make good resin.

Much of the recently-deceased Modelhaus offerings were repops of previously existing promos, kits or kit parts.

Making a 3D printable file from scratch is a whole order of magnitude harder and more "tech" reliant than making silicone molds from existing masters or parts.

As relatively easy as it is to make resin parts or even vacuum-formed parts at home, we don't see very many modelers doing it. And you can probably count on two hands the number of people capable of making top quality plugs from scratch the old-fashioned way.

There's nobody, apparently, with the interest, finances and skillset to step up and fill the huge gap left by Modelhaus, either.

Thinking that some wizard tech-savvy model car lover will shortly be offering the quality that Modelhaus did in 3D-print is wishful thinking at best.

And 3D printed parts will still be more useful as masters for traditional resin casting too...at least until the speed of printing goes up a lot and the prices come down a lot.

Look at it this way: there are almost 320 MILLION people in the USA. How many of them worked at Modelhaus, or still work in the model car aftermarket? See my point? There is just a tiny number of individuals who do the stuff, so buy the goodies while you can. There's nobody standing in line to take the old farts' places.

[gtx6970]

This may happen both in model cars and 1to1's also. I go to a lot of car shows and the owner are 95 % older guys. Not many young folks are showing up. Some will come and walk around and talk. I think the bottom will drop out of both hobby fields unless the younger folks interests change as they age.

Yep, same holds true to the 1 - 1 world. There are exceptions obviously. but unless something changes we are the dyeing breed.

I just turned  57 and am more into models now then ever before. But I have more disposal income ,,,and once I retire ( 9 years 10 months 2 weeks ,,,not that I'm counting ,,lol )  I have a huge stash to work on

[Randy D]

Good question Mike!   The decline in aftermarket suppliers has hit close to home for me with the lost of Scale Hardware and T2M.  They were two main suppliers of scale working nuts and bolts.

  Ray,   Full bodies are available now from 3D manufactures......

 

These two examples were from  TDR  via the Shapeways web site.   In 1/25 scale they cost $50 something. 

 

Randy

 

[martinfan5]

The cottage industry very much alive , and there is so much being offered right now, its truly an amazing time for the hobby.   Now maybe for the older subjects yes, it could be slowing down, but for those of us that build new subjects,  its a great time for us.

There is just soooooooo much available right now.

Edited September 19, 2016 by martinfan5

[Spex84]

I don't see how those bodies could be both high-detail and $50. I just 3D printed 2 tires with shapeways, and it was $26.

Last year when I priced out a body, because of the dimensions and volume of material it was going to cost $500 to print. Yikes!

Something I've been thinking about--right now prices for 50s/60s promos are fairly nuts. But in 20+ years, will anyone be collecting those anymore? What about the cottage industry of replacement bumpers, floorpans, re-chroming, etc?

I agree that there's a ton of stuff available. Some of it will go extinct, sadly, but for every set of 1960 Buick bumpers we can no longer order, there will be a modern mud drag truck engine, or some other offering that fits into a niche previously unexplored by the aftermarket.

 

 

[Chuck Most]

Cottage industry slowdown? I must be living on another planet, because I see no signs of it slowing down. Just because Modelhaus closed up shop doesn't mean that the entire industry is doomed. 

[Ace-Garageguy]

I don't see how those bodies could be both high-detail and $50. I just 3D printed 2 tires with shapeways, and it was $26.

Last year when I priced out a body, because of the dimensions and volume of material it was going to cost $500 to print. Yikes!

 

Here's the link for the V-dub notchback. $57.

http://www.shapeways.com/product/5D5TUZFQN/1-24-volkswagen-notchback-custom?optionId=24020493

[modelercarl]

If my personal experience is any indicator of what is in store for this hobby, it is becoming a hobby for old people exclusively.  I have 4 grandsons (ages 14, 15, 18 & 20) and they have so many activities to occupy their time that, to them, are far more enjoyable than building models.  All of them are dual sport players.  The 14 y.o. hockey & baseball, the 15 y.o. lacrosse & soccer, the 18 y.o. junior hockey & lacrosse, the 20 y.o. college hockey & pickup baseball.  But in addition to the sports they ALL have a wide variety of apps on their computers and cell phones and then there are the girls!  Plus the 18 y.o. & 20 y.o. work part-time for gas money for their cars and the other two are not far behind.

When each one of these guys were around 10-11 years old I took them to a hobby shop and after searching through the stock, I bought each of them the kit of their choice and we built it together.  We started with prepping for paint, painted them (each learned how to use an air brush and rattle cans, assembling them and polishing them.  They proudly display their built models with all of their trophies but that is all any of them have ever done with the hobby.  Zero interest in ever building another....none of their many friends have any interest in the hobby.

I picked up the model building hobby shortly after TV became available and was terrible to watch, we had land line party line phone service and nobody had a second car at home so you played ball, played hockey rode your bike, or something else that today's youth would consider mind numbing.  The technological advances I have seen give today's youth things to do that are more quickly gratifying and offer a diverse panorama of mental activity.  I don't think today's youth even have the attention span required for model building.

[Jantrix]

Business like nature, abhors a vacuum. When there is a market, someone will step up.

[davysmodels]

3-d printing is a great process. Note, 3-d printing is just that - 'printing'. Layers and layers and layers.......................on top of layers to create the object. 

These layers are visible and noticeable to the touch. This means that before a 3-d part can be used for resin casting or as a finished product (ready for primer and paint) all parts need to be sanded SMOOTH. Imagine sanding all the layers lines on a 1/25 scale bumper/grill for a 1963 Chevy Impala !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  That will be a fun process getting inside all the mesh grill patterns to create a smooth finish without any damage.............. A model car body will be a much easier task. These are the negative aspects of 3-D printing. Maybe someday the 3-d creators of the printers will resolve a way to eliminate the layers edges. Until then, prepare to do a lot of sanding and finish work. 

Any 3-d experts out there? Please respond with your expert experiences and advice to us. 

Thanks.

 

[Ace-Garageguy]

3-d printing is a great process. Note, 3-d printing is just that - 'printing'. Layers and layers and layers.......................on top of layers to create the object. 

These layers are visible and noticeable to the touch. This means that before a 3-d part can be used for resin casting or as a finished product (ready for primer and paint) all parts need to be sanded SMOOTH. Imagine sanding all the layers lines on a 1/25 scale bumper/grill for a 1963 Chevy Impala !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  That will be a fun process getting inside all the mesh grill patterns to create a smooth finish without any damage.............. A model car body will be a much easier task. These are the negative aspects of 3-D printing. Maybe someday the 3-d creators of the printers will resolve a way to eliminate the layers edges. Until then, prepare to do a lot of sanding and finish work. 

Any 3-d experts out there? Please respond with your expert experiences and advice to us. 

Thanks.

 

The technology has already advanced to where the "layers" are virtually invisible on high-end products.

These are 1/35 scale figures printed from 3D laser scans.

This guy is 1/48. Chevy grilles in 1/25 shouldn't be too tough.

Edited September 20, 2016 by Ace-Garageguy

[my66s55]

Aw, come on Bill. You know you just can't print small objects with any kind of detail on a desktop 3d printer.

And there are lines everywhere.

 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2016 by my66s55

[Ace-Garageguy]

Aw, come on Bill. You know you just can't print small objects with any kind of detail on a desktop 3d printer.

...And there are lines everywhere.

That is one seriously cool pineapple. I hadn't seen that one before. Pretty impressive work.  

[StevenGuthmiller]

Remember the VCR?

In it's day it was cutting edge.......not that many years ago.

Believe me, laser printing, like every other technology, will be perfected & become cheaper than we can imagine.

 

Steve

[BubbaBrown]

I don't know if you can compare to this but, years ago I went to Toledo twice a year for the show and swap meet . Fall was always bigger filling all rooms. When they narrowed it down to one day suppliers from afar quit coming because it wasn't worth the travel and expense for one day. Less people led to less people. Today the model show and swap meet would fit into the smallest room of the old building with plenty of room to spare. Like water goin down a bath tub .

[slusher]

Remember the VCR?

In it's day it was cutting edge.......not that many years ago.

Believe me, laser printing, like every other technology, will be perfected & become cheaper than we can imagine.

 

Steve

Same with Blu Ray players. We read all the time of new members coming back to model building. There are still many out there to comeback to the hobby. I see way younger then me buying kits at Hobby Lobby...

[Steven Zimmerman]

I don't know if you can compare to this but, years ago I went to Toledo twice a year for the show and swap meet . Fall was always bigger filling all rooms. When they narrowed it down to one day suppliers from afar quit coming because it wasn't worth the travel and expense for one day. Less people led to less people. Today the model show and swap meet would fit into the smallest room of the old building with plenty of room to spare. Like water goin down a bath tub .

I think a lot - not all, but aOT - of the reasons for the demise of the Toledo NNL swap meet / show, can be laid directly at the feet of the promoter. For example, several years ago several of us, as vendors, approached him about lack of advertising, on his part, for the fall show - he told us in no uncertain terms that advertising for the show was OUR ( VENDORS) responsibility. That is his attitude with everything related to the show.  I have other examples, but that will suffice for now. Steven Zimmerman

[High octane]

I think a lot - not all, but aOT - of the reasons for the demise of the Toledo NNL swap meet / show, can be laid directly at the feet of the promoter. For example, several years ago several of us, as vendors, approached him about lack of advertising, on his part, for the fall show - he told us in no uncertain terms that advertising for the show was OUR ( VENDORS) responsibility. That is his attitude with everything related to the show.  I have other examples, but that will suffice for now. Steven Zimmerman

A LOT of blame for the demise of the Toledo swap meet comes directly from the internet. Now vendors don't spend the money for gas, hotels, meals, tables, when they can sell on the internet therefore cutting their expenses way back. Back in the early 2000's the place was jammed with vendors, ten years later not so much.