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SELF-DRIVING CARS: THE HYPE VERSUS REALITY

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There's way to much momentum behind self driving cars for it to stop any time soon. I think there will be some not totally unexpected winners. Disabled people, and the elderly will benefit a lot from a self driving car. So will we if people who really shouldn't drive switch to them. 

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Your thoughts are much like mine Dave, I'd even add beigemobile drivers and those who'd rather read or play on their devices to that list.  Keep those people in the self drivers that would cruise in the slow lane so those who are driving because they want to don't have to deal with rolling road blocks and rolling chicanes!

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43 minutes ago, Dave Ambrose said:

So will we if people who really shouldn't drive switch to them. 

That's about 65% of the people on the road! :lol:

 

 

 

Steve

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A couple of nights ago the local TV talking heads were doing a segment on self driving cars. I don't recall the exact numbers they were giving, but there bit mentioned a very high percentage of drivers do not trust the "Driverless Car" technology at this time. The parking part is of interest as well as the lane departure protection. Again this is helping drivers that can't seem to keep a 4000 lb. projectile in a straight line.  The message the TV Station was putting forward was that the majority of drivers were put off by the number of cars running into each other or running down pedestrians in Cross Walks while they're reading or what ever else they were doing in stead of controlling the vehicle.   

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Ok, here is how the SAE defines the differant levels of self driving.  Adaptive cruise control and lane centering puts you at level 1+ to the beginnings of level 2.  Each step up the ladder requires a quantitative leap in engineering that just isn't anywhere yet.  Yes, we may have self driving cars at some point but we just aren't any where close and there is a lot of tech that needs to happen.  I am 70 and think it is highly unlikely that I will see a level 3 car much less 4 or 5 in my lifetime.  Actually I think it would be easier to go straight to 5.  However you would have to ban all non autonomous vehicles from the road and severely limit the access of pedestrians to roadways.  Kind of like what they do with railroads. but we all know that ain't happening! 

chart showing levels of automation

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9 hours ago, Pete J. said:

  However you would have to ban all non autonomous vehicles from the road and severely limit the access of pedestrians to roadways.  Kind of like what they do with railroads. but we all know that ain't happening!

I'm not sure it is a good comparison.  Railroads (since their inception) had to stay on track. And they do, unless something really drastic and catastrophic happens.  And even now railroad trains are still "driven" and dispatched by human beings. They are not self-driving, but are self-steering by default.

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Not sure if this comes from growing up, going through drivers ed, then continuing to live near Chicago has  anything to do with it, but I already have more trust in self driving cars than I do most local motorists.......well, other than Uber's anyway. Seems like when I read things about a collision between self driving cars and other road users, usually it's the human that has screwed up and/or made an attempt to cause a collision with a self driver.

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A saw a news report a while back on someone who was planning to test (and eventually launch) a fleet of autonomous cabs on the streets of New York...but they figured out that because the sensors would stop a car if a pedestrian walked in front of it the New Yorkers of the future would pretty quickly just start wandering in front of cars on purpose knowing that the car would HAVE to stop because they’d trigger the sensor. Automatic always-right-of-way for everyone on foot!

Of course, a real life New York driver is as likely to speed up to scare a pedestrian out of the way if they dare trying to cross the street in front of them as they are to slow down for them, so it could be a while before they can programme something to work well here 😂

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I remember when the automatic transmission was introduced and everybody said that they didn't need no "fancy gizmo" to shift the gears for them...............thank you very much!!

Let's not forget the 36,000 people killed last year by real people driving cars!!!!!!!!!!!

 

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1 hour ago, peteski said:

I'm not sure it is a good comparison.  Railroads (since their inception) had to stay on track. And they do, unless something really drastic and catastrophic happens.  And even now railroad trains are still "driven" and dispatched by human beings. They are not self-driving, but are self-steering by default.

The local commuter train system in DC (Washingon Metropolitan Area Transit Authority [WMATA], mostly known as Metro) was fully automated for years. The drivers were just along for the ride and customer comfort. People liked seeing someone "in control" of the train, even if the driver was only a figure head. After a couple of accidents, they changed all the trains to manual control so the drivers have to drive. Now, there's incessant delays, jerky rides, and all sort of issues with service. Metro claims the trains will be fully automated again real soon now. There are incompatibilies with old cars and new among other issues. It's a difficult problem, and that's just a relatively few trains in a limited arena.

The Metro tracks are completely inaccessible outside of a few points, mainly stations. Nonetheless, it's not unusual (maybe once or twice a month) for a train to strike a person. A few are what are termed "Metrocides", where a person intentionally jumps in front of a train, but there are people who just fall off the platform for whatever reason.

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56 minutes ago, Vietnam Vet67 said:

I remember when the automatic transmission was introduced and everybody said that they didn't need no "fancy gizmo" to shift the gears for them...............

I still agree 😂

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1 hour ago, SSNJim said:

The local commuter train system in DC (Washingon Metropolitan Area Transit Authority [WMATA], mostly known as Metro) was fully automated for years. The drivers were just along for the ride and customer comfort. People liked seeing someone "in control" of the train, even if the driver was only a figure head. After a couple of accidents, they changed all the trains to manual control so the drivers have to drive. Now, there's incessant delays, jerky rides, and all sort of issues with service. Metro claims the trains will be fully automated again real soon now. There are incompatibilies with old cars and new among other issues. It's a difficult problem, and that's just a relatively few trains in a limited arena.

The Metro tracks are completely inaccessible outside of a few points, mainly stations. Nonetheless, it's not unusual (maybe once or twice a month) for a train to strike a person. A few are what are termed "Metrocides", where a person intentionally jumps in front of a train, but there are people who just fall off the platform for whatever reason.

I was thinking of more mainline trains (like 100+ car trains pulled by multiple locomotives across the country).  Either way you proved that fully automated vehicles even when traveling on a fixed path are still not really safe (accidents you mentioned).

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3 hours ago, Vietnam Vet67 said:

I remember when the automatic transmission was introduced and everybody said that they didn't need no "fancy gizmo" to shift the gears for them...............thank you very much!!

Let's not forget the 36,000 people killed last year by real people driving cars!!!!!!!!!!!

 

We need to think about this number, 36,000..........

36,000 People killed by other people,

both involving parties just humans trying to get somewhere while at least one of them if not both isn’t paying attention to their surroundings

 maybe have some pedestrians that just want to end it while hoping that final act will provide for their families (Dad had been sure of that in many railroad death investigations he was involved in as a track worker and supervisor/manager, even with some drivers too, especially if alcohol was involved)

might have some people that are entitled enough to think you should stop for them, even at the last possible second.....even if you’re operating a locomotive that is loaded and running interstate speeds, or that you’re just in their way (even more so if you’re on foot or 2 wheels) and have no problems going through you or shoving you out of their way if they deem you a nuisance to their daily lives

Better drivers training or even retraining for those of us that have been licensed for a while would likely help those numbers, even though cluelessness, ego, and entitlement may win out in some cases.

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5 hours ago, peteski said:

I'm not sure it is a good comparison.  Railroads (since their inception) had to stay on track. And they do, unless something really drastic and catastrophic happens.  And even now railroad trains are still "driven" and dispatched by human beings. They are not self-driving, but are self-steering by default.

Sorry I didn't make the point very well.  It was clear in my mind!  I was alluding to limited access to the railroad right of way.  Pedestrians and other non railroad vehicles have extremely limited access to the land and rails that trains run on.  In other words, trains have limited interference from uncontrolled vehicles.  Even with that, every year some one manages to be on the tracks when the train comes through.  

My point was that if you could get rid of everything but autonomous controlled vehicles, then that is far easier to make work than mixing autonomous vehicles with the random driving habits of human drivers and pedestrians.    

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Railroad right of way! Anyone would be a fool to argue about that one! The laws of physics dictate that the inertia of a locomotive hauling numerous wagons would take out an Abrams tank if it got in the way let alone a by comparison a  puny truck or car!

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You guys could look at it this way...

There was a lot of "Get a horse!" grumbling during the development of the horseless carriage, and the automobile turned out OK, didn't it?

 

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25 minutes ago, Brian Austin said:

You guys could look at it this way...

There was a lot of "Get a horse!" grumbling during the development of the horseless carriage, and the automobile turned out OK, didn't it?

 

Aren't you just a ray of sunshine?  Rainbows and unicorns too!  Come on Brian, let the old guys grumble a bit. What fun would it be if we were happy about everything? :D

Oh, in case anybody is not sure, this was a tongue-in-cheek remark.

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On 3/7/2020 at 1:57 AM, Joe Handley said:

We need to think about this number, 36,000..........

36,000 People killed by other people,

both involving parties just humans trying to get somewhere while at least one of them if not both isn’t paying attention to their surroundings...

Lots more deadly than coronavirus, eh?

Maybe putting fifty rolls of toilet paper in the trunk would help...

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On 3/7/2020 at 1:57 AM, Joe Handley said:

Better drivers training or even retraining for those of us that have been licensed for a while would likely help those numbers, even though cluelessness, ego, and entitlement may win out in some cases.

I agree completely.

But it's always been politics that's prevented compulsory effective driver training.

Legislating personal responsibility is a very VERY hard sell.

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A little Heads Up to all of you living in Arizona and in parts west. The local TV had program about Driverless 18 Wheelers being tested in that area. They interviewed a couple of the people working for the company doing the testing. They are at a point that the rigs are on the road with NO HUMAN even in the cab.  

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Similar subject, there is an Uber air taxi competition going on, for pilot-less air taxis in large cities. So, computers running the cars, large trucks and a bunch or unmanned aircraft overhead....bad news. As much as I dont trust humans, I have less trust in anything digital. 

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20 minutes ago, drummerdad said:

 As much as I dont trust humans, I have less trust in anything digital. 

Especially if it has to coexist, deal with, and share the road with unpredictable humans.  Recipe for disaster.

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8 hours ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

Lots more deadly than coronavirus, eh?

Maybe putting fifty rolls of toilet paper in the trunk would help...

Nah, this Quilted Northern ad has the right idea........

image.jpeg.d070dbac169645dfae052b721780e317.jpeg
 

:lol:

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Posted (edited)

Wow!  This Corona virus is infecting many threads on this forum.  Just like the real thing. :(

Edited by peteski

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7 hours ago, peteski said:

Wow!  This Corona virus is infecting many threads on this forum.  Just like the real thing. :(

Gotta make fun of the people panic buying a decade's worth of TP for a respiratory virus somehow😉

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