Well it’s finally announced.😦

[mikemodeler]

2 minutes ago, Plowboy said:

So, the billions of current ICE vehicles in the world will magically disappear in 2035? 

No, it will take decades to rid the earth of ICE powered vehicles. Currently there are approximately 280 million registered vehicles in the United States, the majority of which run on fossil fuel. Not everyone can or will make the transition to EVs, whether it be cost or preference.

What needs to be understood is that the ability to recycle all of those ICE vehicles is costly and will take time. In the past, many vehicles that were junked had parts salvaged to re-use like body parts and drive trains. There will still be a market for the parts as not every one will make the $$$ needed to buy an EV and the charging set up at home.

On an episode of This Old House, they were discussing the electrical needs of a house they were working on and the homeowners were thinking ahead and wanted charging stations installed in the garage. Before the electrician could run the service, they had to calculate the total power the house could possibly demand and check with the power company to see if they could provide it. That is going to cause issues as they have to retrofit the power grid to handle the increased demand.

[mikemodeler]

4 minutes ago, iBorg said:

My concern is they won't disappear but the cost of gas will be prohibitive. What this means is those who can only afford a used petro car will be forced to feed it expensive fuel. This could lead to a cycle of only being able to afford expensive transportation.

 

That's the plan.

[Ace-Garageguy]

8 minutes ago, iBorg said:

My concern is they won't disappear but the cost of gas will be prohibitive. What this means is those who can only afford a used petro car will be forced to feed it expensive fuel. This could lead to a cycle of only being able to afford expensive transportation.

 

GM's Mary Barra at one time stated her intention to take the company away from selling cars, and to instead partner with or start a "ride share" operation like Uber, where the vehicles they manufacture are "on call", rather than owned.

"You'll own nothing, and you'll be happy".  Look it up.  

Edited August 18, 2022 by Ace-Garageguy
CLARITY

[mikemodeler]

9 minutes ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

The average lifespan of a car is figured to be 10-12 years before they're junked.

That means that by 2045-2047, the vast majority will be gone.

Not to get into an argument, but in the automotive aftermarket parts business, companies look at the "sweet spot" of vehicle ages as they determine which parts to stock locally at your neighborhood auto parts store. In most cases, depending on the parts category, they go back as far as 20 years or more based on local vehicle registration. High frequency replaced items like brakes, filters and wipers, they will carry parts for 20 year old cars readily. Less frequent repairs or items that are costly, they have in regional warehouses that can be had in a day or two.

The bottom line is that while the industry is a changing, the parts retailers would not be building new stores, warehouses and distribution networks if they thought the business wasn't going to be there. I personally don't see how in roughly 20 years the vast majority of 280 million ICE powered vehicles will be gone.

[iBorg]

24 minutes ago, mikemodeler said:

Not to get into an argument, but in the automotive aftermarket parts business, companies look at the "sweet spot" of vehicle ages as they determine which parts to stock locally at your neighborhood auto parts store. In most cases, depending on the parts category, they go back as far as 20 years or more based on local vehicle registration. High frequency replaced items like brakes, filters and wipers, they will carry parts for 20 year old cars readily. Less frequent repairs or items that are costly, they have in regional warehouses that can be had in a day or two.

The bottom line is that while the industry is a changing, the parts retailers would not be building new stores, warehouses and distribution networks if they thought the business wasn't going to be there. I personally don't see how in roughly 20 years the vast majority of 280 million ICE powered vehicles will be gone.

I'll admit I suffer from mental illness. I love FWD Dodge Daytonas and Chrysler XTs. Last produced about 30 years ago in 1993. Seen any on the road lately? I also have a soft spot for PT Cruisers. Last produced 12 years ago. Used to be as common as belly buttons. Notice how they stand out now as unusual? In 20 years after the major manufacturers go away from ICEs, they'll stand out like dinosaurs at a zebra convention.

[Ace-Garageguy]

20 minutes ago, mikemodeler said:

Not to get into an argument, but in the automotive aftermarket parts business, companies look at the "sweet spot" of vehicle ages as they determine which parts to stock locally at your neighborhood auto parts store. In most cases, depending on the parts category, they go back as far as 20 years or more based on local vehicle registration. High frequency replaced items like brakes, filters and wipers, they will carry parts for 20 year old cars readily.

But they're not stocking those old parts by the hundreds for any particular car, because they're going away. Every time I have to buy something locally, in the Atlanta metro market, I ask how many are in store-stock, at other stores ('cause it's sometimes expedient to just go get whatever it is than to wait for overnight delivery to my local store), or warehoused regionally. The numbers aren't high.

In the real world, how many 20 year-old cars do you see in daily service? Sure there are some, but I have, for instance, a 2005 Neon, and a 2001 PT, and I very rarely encounter operational examples...and almost never encounter other, older ones like my 911, XJ6, first-gen MR2, etc.

 

[mikemodeler]

1 minute ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

But they're not stocking those old parts by the hundreds for any particular car, because they're going away. Every time I have to buy something locally, in the Atlanta metro market, I ask how many are in store-stock, at other stores ('cause it's sometimes expedient to just go get whatever it is than to wait for overnight delivery to my local store), or warehoused regionally. The numbers aren't high.

In the real world, how many 20 year-old cars do you see in daily service? Sure there are some, but I have, for instance, a 2005 Neon, and a 2001 PT, and I very rarely encounter operational examples...and almost never encounter other, older ones like my 911, XJ6, first-gen MR2, etc.

 

As I said, it is based on local vehicle registrations, so if the cars you are working on are not in large demand in your market, the parts won't be on the shelf, but they will be available. Much like any retailer, auto parts are monitored for movement and only the ones with a high turnover are stocked locally.

 

[Plowboy]

58 minutes ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

Then why don't you educate yourself about the existing technology that's capable of removing, capturing, and recycling carbon dioxide from natural-gas and coal-burning plants' exhaust plumes, and get vocal about mandating THAT? Because for the foreseeable future, "renewables" simply are not going to be able to keep up with ever increasing loads on the grid from electric vehicles.

We have 200 or more years-worth of coal right here in the good old USA, we don't need to buy it from anybody outside, and it CAN be 100% carbon-neutral.

Many localities are already experiencing the false promise of relying on renewables at our CURRENT demand level, both here and abroad, they're looking back at coal and nuclear, and a little open-minded research into FACTS concerning global energy usage might give you a better perspective on what needs to be done.

There's no such thing as "clean" coal. Not in the mining of it. Not in the burning of it. Even if carbon dioxide could be removed, there's still the sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides that are emitted.

Grab yourself a chunk of coal, set it on fire and get a breath of the smoke. Then see if you still believe it can be burned "cleanly". 

[Ace-Garageguy]

Just now, Plowboy said:

There's no such thing as "clean" coal. Not in the mining of it. Not in the burning of it. Even if carbon dioxide could be removed, there's still the sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides that are emitted.

Grab yourself a chunk of coal, set it on fire and get a breath of the smoke. Then see if you still believe it can be burned "cleanly". 

Science, huh?

[Rob Hall]

11 minutes ago, Plowboy said:

There's no such thing as "clean" coal. Not in the mining of it. Not in the burning of it. Even if carbon dioxide could be removed, there's still the sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides that are emitted.

Grab yourself a chunk of coal, set it on fire and get a breath of the smoke. Then see if you still believe it can be burned "cleanly". 

My understanding is 'clean' coal is a marketing myth pushed by Big Coal and the corrupt politicians they own.   Nothing new, there have been articles about it for years..for example:

https://e360.yale.edu/features/the_myth_of_clean_coal

https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Myth-of-Clean-Coal-Fact-Sheet_Final_November-2018.pdf

https://www.greenamerica.org/fight-dirty-energy/amazon-build-cleaner-cloud/coal-why-it-dirty

Edited August 18, 2022 by Rob Hall

[Ace-Garageguy]

7 minutes ago, Rob Hall said:

My understanding is 'clean' coal is a marketing myth pushed by Big Coal and the corrupt politicians they own. 

Dig deeper. The tech exists, but the reason it's not implemented is greed and corruption and maintaining the status quo.

[Rob Hall]

2 minutes ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

Dig deeper. The tech exists, but the reason it's not implemented is greed and corruption and maintaining the status quo.

Ah, conspiracies..

[Ace-Garageguy]

5 minutes ago, Rob Hall said:

Ah, conspiracies..

Indeed.

16 minutes ago, Rob Hall said:

My understanding is 'clean' coal is a marketing myth pushed by Big Coal and the corrupt politicians they own.

 

[Plowboy]

14 minutes ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

Dig deeper. The tech exists, but the reason it's not implemented is greed and corruption and maintaining the status quo.

Yeah, that's what it is.

[mikemodeler]

Let's not forget the byproduct of burning coal- coal ash. One of the worst polluters to fresh water is coal ash, and most coal powered plant operators have done a lousy job of protecting the environment from it, hoping the EPA will do their dirty work, literally.

[Ace-Garageguy]

2 minutes ago, mikemodeler said:

Let's not forget the byproduct of burning coal- coal ash. One of the worst polluters to fresh water is coal ash, and most coal powered plant operators have done a lousy job of protecting the environment from it, hoping the EPA will do their dirty work, literally.

No argument there, but just because something hasn't been implemented universally doesn't mean it can't be done, and the stuff can be and is being recycled responsibly.

https://www.epa.gov/coalash/frequent-questions-about-beneficial-use-coal-ash

[iBorg]

26 minutes ago, Rob Hall said:

My understanding is 'clean' coal is a marketing myth pushed by Big Coal and the corrupt politicians they own.   Nothing new, there have been articles about it for years..for example:

https://e360.yale.edu/features/the_myth_of_clean_coal

https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Myth-of-Clean-Coal-Fact-Sheet_Final_November-2018.pdf

https://www.greenamerica.org/fight-dirty-energy/amazon-build-cleaner-cloud/coal-why-it-dirty

If you've ever been in an area where coal is mined you'll find significant pollution from acid run off. Many area near coal mines do not have drinkable water. Beyond that the pollution from the trucks along with other environmental damages are immense. 

But coal is not the leading fuel for energy production. It is natural gas. See: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

[iamsuperdan]

1 hour ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

GM's Mary Barra at one time stated her intention to take the company away from selling cars, and to instead partner with or start a "ride share" operation like Uber, where the vehicles they manufacture are "on call", rather than owned.

"You'll own nothing, and you'll be happy".  Look it up.  

This idea is actually working in Europe right now. https://www.lynkco.com/en

A subscription based car service. Yes, you can just buy one, but you can also "buy" part of one. 

Interesting idea, and I can see it working for people who live, work, and shop in an urban centre.

48 minutes ago, iBorg said:

I'll admit I suffer from mental illness. I love FWD Dodge Daytonas and Chrysler XTs. Last produced about 30 years ago in 1993. Seen any on the road lately? I also have a soft spot for PT Cruisers. Last produced 12 years ago. Used to be as common as belly buttons. Notice how they stand out now as unusual? In 20 years after the major manufacturers go away from ICEs, they'll stand out like dinosaurs at a zebra convention.

 

41 minutes ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

In the real world, how many 20 year-old cars do you see in daily service? Sure there are some, but I have, for instance, a 2005 Neon, and a 2001 PT, and I very rarely encounter operational examples...and almost never encounter other, older ones like my 911, XJ6, first-gen MR2, etc.

 

 

It's funny though. 20 year old cars are a rarity. With a few exceptions, they've almost vanished, and finding parts is a challenge.

But 20 year old trucks? They're everywhere. And parts are readily available. I could buy almost every part and build a brand new version of my 1999 Tahoe or 1995 Sierra 1500. And the newest one of that generation is 22 years old. If I went into our back service area right now, there would be a handful of F-series trucks from the 90s back there. Running, and in decent shape. 

 

There's an auto parts store down the street from here. They snap up ALL the PT Cruisers they can find, and use them as their parts delivery vehicles. Must have 20 or 30 of them parked out back every night.

[Rob Hall]

When I do see 20 yr old vehicles around here (NE Ohio) they are often worn out or rusty.  Don’t see that many out and about in good shape. 

[mikemodeler]

5 minutes ago, Rob Hall said:

When I do see 20 yr old vehicles around here (NE Ohio) they are often worn out or rusty.  Don’t see that many out and about in good shape. 

Come on down South Rob, we have all kinds of older vehicles with barely any rust on them.

 

[Rob Hall]

9 minutes ago, mikemodeler said:

Come on down South Rob, we have all kinds of older vehicles with barely any rust on them.

 

I saw a lot like that in AZ, though they often had oxidized paint and sun-damaged plastics. 

[von Zipper]

Cattle are the top source of methane emissions in the U.S

Livestock accounts for 37% of all U.S. methane emission and cattle are responsible for much of that producing 86.2% percent of that livestock methane 

[Rob Hall]

1 minute ago, von Zipper said:

Cattle are the top source of methane emissions in the U.S

Livestock accounts for 37% of all U.S. methane emission and cattle are responsible for much of that producing 86.2% percent of that livestock methane 

cattle need emission controls.

Edited August 18, 2022 by Rob Hall

[von Zipper]

5 minutes ago, Rob Hall said:

cattle need emission controls.

...maybe a cattle attic converter 

[StevenGuthmiller]

2 hours ago, vintagerpm said:

Have you not been paying attention? California (2035), the US (2035), and the UK (2030) have set dates after which it will be illegal to sell new gasoline or diesel powered cars.

And California has already banned the sale of gasoline powered small equipment such as lawn mowers, leaf blowers, portable generators, etc.

If that's not government mandated "force", I'm not sure what is.

 

 

 

Steve