How many car/truck modelers?

[Darin Bastedo]

Why would you assume that everyone who builds models is in a club?

I'll bet the vast majority who build are NOT in a club. Club membership probably represents a tiny minority of all who build model cars.

It's like people who like to read. Do you think they all belong to a book club? Of course not... only a tiny minority of people who like to read belong to book clubs. Same with models builders, I'll bet. For every club member, there are probably hundreds, if not thousands, who don't belong to a club.

When I was a hobby shop manager in Columbia SC there were at least 200 regular customers of mine that built models. of those 8 belonged to the local club. there are over 300 million residents of the USA. if only 1% did at least some model building we would have 3 million Model builders in the USA.

[ra7c7er]

Nobody will ever know how many model builders are in an area. Clubs are a small very very small minority of model builders. This forum is only a small minority of model builders. Their is not real hobby shop in my area and I thought I was basically the only one building in my entire area of well over 100,000 but after some craigslist posts and a few flea markets. I have met at least 100 active modelers and found out about a hobby shop I didn't even know existed that is only 15 minutes from my house. Seriously guys you can say their are only x small number in your area but I bet if you actually looked hard you will find more than you think. Every time I go to Hobby Lobby I find the model kit isle hard to walk through because there are people buying kits or at least looking. If you are in an area where their is no direct access to models you will find less builders though. The internet doesn't bring in new builders and every time a shop closes that closes off an area to new builders.

When I worked at Mark Twain Hobby I would read the insider magazines and they would say for every X number of items sold their were x number of hobbyist that wouldn't buy one. That is the best formula for trying to find a number of hobbyist. Lets just say for an individual model kit Revell makes 50,000 kits to release in the US if 1 in 5 model builders bought one that would mean their are approximately 250,000 modelers. I will be honest though I bet the ratio is more than 1 in 5. I mean can anyone here name a kit that 1 in 5 of us on this forum all bought new from a retail establishment. If Revell could make models that 1 in 5 modelers bought they would be pumping out kits hand over fist.

-As for the club thing that has popped up I have a great example of how few people actually join clubs.

My stepdad does Cowboy Action Shooting and he has been doing it for over 15 years. He has NEVER been a part of any club but he shoots at 4 different ranges/clubs. One of the clubs he shoots at has only 17 members but gets on an average summer weekend over 150 non member entrants and on some weekends will draw over 250 shooters. Thats a ratio of close to 1 in 10 even in the winter the club will draw 75-100 non member shooters. All of that is in a setting where you have to have others to participate. If the ratio for dressing up like a cowboy and shooting at metal targets with a bunch of other guys dressed up like cowboys and shooting at metal targets is right at 1 in 10 I bet the ratio for a solitary hobby in which you don't need anyone else or even a outside place to do it is somewhere close to 100 times that if not more.

Remember building models is a solitary experience and the vast majority of builders keep it that way their entire lives.

I had a race shop owner say this to me about dirt track racing and I think it applies here very well "Their are more racers than you think but less than you hope for"

Edited April 11, 2011 by ra7c7er

[CAL]

When I was a hobby shop manager in Columbia SC there were at least 200 regular customers of mine that built models. of those 8 belonged to the local club. there are over 300 million residents of the USA. if only 1% did at least some model building we would have 3 million Model builders in the USA.

Even at that number which seems high that is still only 0.15% of the population of Columbia.

Edited April 11, 2011 by CAL

[DRG]

I may not know the number of those that build models but I do know that it would take a rather large number to support those that sell models and the cottage industry we have.

[CAL]

Nobody will ever know how many model builders are in an area. Clubs are a small very very small minority of model builders. This forum is only a small minority of model builders. Their is not real hobby shop in my area and I thought I was basically the only one building in my entire area of well over 100,000 but after some craigslist posts and a few flea markets. I have met at least 100 active modelers and found out about a hobby shop I didn't even know existed that is only 15 minutes from my house. Seriously guys you can say their are only x small number in your area but I bet if you actually looked hard you will find more than you think. Every time I go to Hobby Lobby I find the model kit isle hard to walk through because there are people buying kits or at least looking. If you are in an area where their is no direct access to models you will find less builders though. The internet doesn't bring in new builders and every time a shop closes that closes off an area to new builders.

When I worked at Mark Twain Hobby I would read the insider magazines and they would say for every X number of items sold their were x number of hobbyist that wouldn't buy one. That is the best formula for trying to find a number of hobbyist. Lets just say for an individual model kit Revell makes 50,000 kits to release in the US if 1 in 5 model builders bought one that would mean their are approximately 250,000 modelers. I will be honest though I bet the ratio is more than 1 in 5. I mean can anyone here name a kit that 1 in 5 of us on this forum all bought new from a retail establishment. If Revell could make models that 1 in 5 modelers bought they would be pumping out kits hand over fist.

-As for the club thing that has popped up I have a great example of how few people actually join clubs.

My stepdad does Cowboy Action Shooting and he has been doing it for over 15 years. He has NEVER been a part of any club but he shoots at 4 different ranges/clubs. One of the clubs he shoots at has only 17 members but gets on an average summer weekend over 150 non member entrants and on some weekends will draw over 250 shooters. Thats a ratio of close to 1 in 10 even in the winter the club will draw 75-100 non member shooters. All of that is in a setting where you have to have others to participate. If the ratio for dressing up like a cowboy and shooting at metal targets with a bunch of other guys dressed up like cowboys and shooting at metal targets is right at 1 in 10 I bet the ratio for a solitary hobby in which you don't need anyone else or even a outside place to do it is somewhere close to 100 times that if not more.

Remember building models is a solitary experience and the vast majority of builders keep it that way their entire lives.

I had a race shop owner say this to me about dirt track racing and I think it applies here very well "Their are more racers than you think but less than you hope for"

Revell claims to make about 10,000,000 kits a year.

there are about 1,000 kits in their product line.

That makes for about an average of 10,000 units per product item world wide.

1 in 5 would be 50,000

1 in 10 would be 100,000

1 in 100 would be a million, world wide which I what I guessed before.

[Aaronw]

As of April 11, 2011, 8:44AM Pacific time, there are 7,459 serious model car and truck builders in the english speaking world.

[CAL]

As of April 11, 2011, 8:44AM Pacific time, there are 7,459 serious model car and truck builders in the english speaking world.

There you go, spoken with authority.

[Harry P.]

What in the world is "cowboy action shooting???"

[niteowl7710]

Let me wade in here with CDL Instruction Statistical Math. After crunching these numbers, this actually seems pretty realistic to me.

Of the current 308,785,538 (per 2010 census) people currently alive and kicking in the United States, 10% of them have at one time or another attempted to build a model car/truck kit of some scale and skill. I know some will say this skews awfully high but consider how many people have 3 generations that have at some point built one model kit (father taught son, who taught grandchildren, etc) and that doesn't count all siblings, relatives, scout troops, and on and on.

So you have 30,878,553 people who at some time built a model kit. Now for the CDL math. Of anyone who gets a CDL only 5% will actually still be driving in one year. So extrapolate that, only 5% of those people will build MORE than one model kit at some point in their life.

From that you get 1,543,927 persons who fit into that category. Back to CDL Math. Of the 5% who still actively drive after 1 year, only 5% will make a life long career out of it. So extrapolate that 5% of that 5% will build model kits their entire life, and make a life long "career" out of it.

This wild stab at statistics would indicate that there are currently 77,196 active modelers in the country.

You oughta see the faces in a class of 30 trucking students when you tell them only 2 or 3 of them are actually going to make a career out of this $6,000, 3-5 week training they are enduring. But those are the true statistics in my industry, and I think they fit pretty well here too.

[CAL]

What in the world is "cowboy action shooting???"

I think you shoot an indian.

[CAL]

so somewhere between 3.5 million and 7459 modelers.

[Harry P.]

so somewhere between 3.5 million and 7459 modelers.

That's a pretty good guess...

[Darin Bastedo]

Even at that number which seems high that is still only 0.15% of the population of Columbia.

That number was "regular customers" guys I saw at least every week or so, then there was the occasional buyer, who came in every few months, them there are guys I only saw a few tims a year.

Add to that mine was not the only place to buy model kits at the time. there were three other hobby shops in the area, three walmarts, two miceals, a hobby lobby, and multiple drug stores and other types of stores selling models. so my numbers were likely only my share of the business, I would say that there were quite a few model builders in the area.

[ra7c7er]

What in the world is "cowboy action shooting???"

Not the best video but here it is. It's pretty neat to watch and the people have a lot of fun. It's a great way to spend an afternoon if you can find a club in your area. You can go watch and I garantte by the end of the day someone, or several, will try and strap some guns on you and try and get you to do it.

[Monte's Motors]

After all this

I would say the maximum percentage of modelers would be: .10% That would be 1 in a population of 1,000.

That would be near the same percentage as race car drivers.