Where are we headed?

[Jairus]

Commercial trucks in Oregon have been paying a "weight mile tax" since the 30's. What that means is no fuel tax if that diesel is purchased in-state. No electronic tracking required. The companies who travel through Oregon are required to turn in a monthly report and payment by the 15th of each month.

Because of this there is a huge network of offices all over Oregon monitoring, implementing and auditing that tax structure. At 13+ cents per mile the income generated is way far and above the cost to staff the offices needed to make it work.

Some companies do try to "beat the system", but the amount of evasion of tax is right around 3%.

On the other hand, Washington, California, Idaho... indeed most of the contiguous United States all collect their tax via point of purchase. A fuel tax!

This system requires far fewer staff to implement. Auditing and enforcement of course are still required as are those data entry persons who input the tax reports. Reporting is still required, in order to separate and distribute the taxes to each state should a driver only fuel up in one state and drive straight through another. Although computers and digital reporting are fast becoming the norm. So the International Fuel Tax Association (I.F.T.A.) distributes the taxes as fairly as possible based on miles driven.

But the evasion regarding fuels tax is much higher... about 10%.

Not to mention more economical vehicles tend to pay less per mile.

A milage tax today would be a much fairer structure and could be done electronically at point of purchase. Simply drive through a station and gas up... while the pump downloads the number of miles driven from the computer electronically and adds it to the bill.

The system can even separate one states miles from another and electronically distribute the taxes accordingly.

A better system I feel... IF the fuels tax is completely removed at the same time.

[Jairus]

Incidentally, taxes in the trucking industry are based on weight. 28,001 lb. truck pays 3.64 cents, all the way up to 105,500 paying 13.24 cents per mile.

A milage tax for cars would undoubtedly use the same structure whereby a lighter weight car pays less than a heavy SUV.

[mikemodeler]

A milage tax today would be a much fairer structure and could be done electronically at point of purchase. Simply drive through a station and gas up... while the pump downloads the number of miles driven from the computer electronically and adds it to the bill.Who will bear the cost of these new point of purchase systems at the pumps? You and me, so either way we pay more! Here in the Southeast there are some stations that haven't embraced pay at the pump yet, how do you get them on board?

IF the fuels tax is completely removed at the same time.

Like that is going to happen! When was the last time a tax was eliminated in this country? How many times have we been fooled into that scam? A tax gets eliminated and before you know it, we have a "surcharge" or a "fee" added to the bill! What happens when California wants to charge more than New Mexico because they need to balance their budget?

Per Jarius's request, I have edited my comments and his original statements. For the record, I did not change any of his words.

Edited June 2, 2011 by mikemodeler

[Jairus]

Careful Mike. You "quoted" me but changed my words. I realize that you were responding... but someone else might not understand. Would be better to delete the entire quote, since it followed directly, and just type your response.

K?

Thanks.

[Erik Smith]

Seems the "dino" idea has been dispelled (won't find that in the MSM) and the earth is still making more! There is more out (or down) there than our's and the world governments would like us to think! Just sayin'!

This is true, the earth has never stopped making oil. The problem is the rate at which it is being produced. It is quite slow.

The real problem is not running completely out of oil. Once the total amount of supply is decreased to the point where more cannot be added to meet increasing demand, we run into a big problem. There are a lot of books and articles on peak oil and there is not a consensus on when, but the idea that oil will last a long time but will not be able to meet demand due to rising needs and lower supply is, to me, incontrovertible.

Yes, taxes (or tax collection methods) will need to be shifted as the government will not be able to maintain roads with a decreasing tax base (more miles to the gallon, alternative fuels, less driving). Or, we could privatize the highway systems and make them pay-as-you-go.

Edited June 2, 2011 by Coyotehybrids

[Bruno]

What will happen in the near future is that the oil prices will continue to go up, forcing North American people to buy small cars instead of big SUV's and pickup trucks, just like they do in Europe.

[robdot]

just my 2 cents. the price of oil is based on a global market. very little the u.s. does has any effect on it.( the us has less than 2% of the world crude oil supply) the price of gasoline is decided by the local market. taxes etc. the current cost of gas is not a supply related issue. you can look that for yourself if you like. oil is indeed a finite resource and will be used up. also consumption is greatly increasing. there is a myth in america that we have some magic oil fields in whats called shale oil. yes, we have massive oil fields. but this kind of oil is expensive and impractical to extract. (the middle east has crude oil, easy to tap)it would behoove us as a nation to invest in other forms of energy before we actually run out, or someone else turns off the tap. raising the price of gas through taxes is one way to stimulate research, but would be political suicide and no one has the guts to do it. you cant compare the sand oil of alberta to shale oil. two different things. those who shout drill baby drill dont understand that just because someone drills off our coast, doesnt mean the oil belongs to us. for example. bp stands for british petroleum. the oil drilled from the gulf does not automatically "belong" to us. like the cars built in detroit do not "belong" to us. as a nation america has to invest in long term renewable energy. but we have never demonstrated the will or courage to do so and will likely wait untill we are at crisis level to think about doing anything. which is how we manage most things. crisis management. we simply move from crisis to crisis without any thought for tommorow. p.s. we actually get most of our oil from canada.

[robdot]

oh,sorry, p.s. again. nasa used hydrogen to launch shuttles. honda actually manufacted a hydrogen car. but all american autos have bailed on this technology, as it has too many technical issues and likely will never be of any use. they also emit carbon, ha, go figure.

[GTMust]

Coincidentally, this three page article came into my email inbox from a friend who is also interested in the future of transportation. While it mostly deals with the financial and economic costs of "money" (and future transportation as it primarily relates to electric vehicles), it may make interesting reading for some of you.

http://evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1994

(One "expert's" point of view.)

[Dr. Cranky]

Wow, maybe this thread can fuel a few cars!

[Jairus]

oh,sorry, p.s. again. nasa used hydrogen to launch shuttles. honda actually manufacted a hydrogen car. but all american autos have bailed on this technology, as it has too many technical issues and likely will never be of any use. they also emit carbon, ha, go figure.

There is only one product of combusion - water. Hydrogen burns in the oxygen in air to form hydrogen oxide or water vapour. No carbon is produced.

2H2 (g) + O2 (g) = 2H20 (g)

[Dr. Cranky]

Here's a quick observation. I don't know when was the last time most of you took a whiff of so-called gasoline last time you were at the pump, but the stuff doesn't smell like gasoline anymore.

I think they are putting the blood of elves into it now. And yes, I do believe we will run out of oil, here there and everywhere!

[MrObsessive]

Here's a quick observation. I don't know when was the last time most of you took a whiff of so-called gasoline last time you were at the pump, but the stuff doesn't smell like gasoline anymore.

I think they are putting the blood of elves into it now. And yes, I do believe we will run out of oil, here there and everywhere!

You're right Virgil! I can remember as a kid in the '60's, gas had a pretty "sweet" smell to it! So good you could almost drink it! Hee-Hee!

My mom had a friend of the family who owned a 1960 Oldsmobile (4 door flat-top) and he used to fill his car up at one of the state owned gas pumps as he worked for the state at that time. I can still distinctly remember how good that gasoline smelled to this day! Now I can't stand to get it on my hands the odor is so fowl!

Must be all the additives, and whatnot they're putting in gasoline these days............not to mention gas no longer has lead in it (don't know if that's what gave the wonderful aroma!).

I gotta disagree though about the earth one day running out of oil.............................

[Harry P.]

There is only one product of combusion - water. Hydrogen burns in the oxygen in air to form hydrogen oxide or water vapour. No carbon is produced.

2H2 (g) + O2 (g) = 2H20 (g)

And besides, even if it were... carbon isn't a bad thing! It's the essential basis of life on our planet. All life on earth is carbon-based.

It's carbon dioxide that we need to be aware of...

[GTMust]

I gotta disagree though about the earth one day running out of oil.............................

Really?????

[niteowl7710]

Well in reality we probably will not run out of oil, we will however at some point run out of commercially viable oil. The U.S. sits on more oil than the Middle East, however getting the majority out of the ground involves either getting it out of shale, or our own oil sands, neither of which are cheap, so the investment isn't being made. Besides I've long thought this country's long-term energy policy was to use up the world's oil first, then we'd have all of it.

This conversation has been an interesting exercise in paranoia and far-out technology dreaming. But as is the usual case the here and now falls somewhere in the middle. Despite all the noise on both sides about either government control or the evils of urban sprawl, the vast majority of this country is the middle of nowhere rural. I live a short 28 mile commute to Pittsburgh, but out in my county it's primarily rural/agriculture zoning. We don't even have a taxi service, let alone public transit. We have a "bus service" for seniors and the infirm, but you quite literally have to be approved by the county to us it, you can't just get on the bus and ride it around. I;m the first person to admit that when I got to D.C. on vacation I park my car in the hotel and don't see it again until I leave, but that all encompassing Metro system isn't going to help me or 85% of Pennsylvanians who live outside of Pittsburgh & Philadelphia.

All the hybrids, electric cars and high speed rail isn't going to help the farmers in the Midwest, or ranchers in Texas. There are always going to be people who really DO need 1 ton dually pick-up trucks, 7 passenger SUVs, and 16 passenger vans. That's to say nothing of commercial freight movements. For all the greenie/touchie/feel good ads that Norfolk-Southern & CSX run, the fact of the matter is that your local grocery store doesn't have a rail siding behind it. All of those containers and intermodal trailers have to come off and be run to their final destination on a truck. All putting things on rail does is eliminate long-haul trucking jobs, and reduce traffic congestion in Kansas. It just means MORE trucks on the road in major cities to deliver all those trailers to and from the rail-head. Also due to the way the rail lines merged and consolidated we're one major train derailment away from having the entire grid come to a halt. Chicago is a particularly notorious choke-point, with the freight going through far exceeding the rail capacity...one wreck there (aside from whatever devastation the potential chemical release might cause) could shut down East-West rail traffic for weeks. A lot of rail-beds were torn out and turned into "nature walks", bike trails, etc. so there's no real viable work-around either that doesn't detour things through Kansas City, which goes into an entire separate issue of who's rails who's trains are using.

The next great thing out there might very well be developing in an R&D lab, or percolating in some college kid's mind, but until it gets here we use oil. The problem as I see it really lies in the fact that we're throwing subsidies around for these "green jobs" and "alternative energies" with the same reckless abandon the Feds do everything else...which is to say totally ineffectively. Bypassing various technologies based on who has the biggest lobbyist convention in town. This country has shown a complete and total propensity towards talking a lot of doodie, but not taking any actual actions (see - No budget in over 2 years, huge deficits, Social Security & Medicare going bankrupt through at LEAST 3 administrations). Bottom line is those dopes don't care one whit about any of us on either side of the "aisle", it's all about power and $$$, and the infrastructure of this country is collapsing around their collective greed.

[Jairus]

Well said James, I agree with you 100%!

[robdot]

concerning hydrogen cars and co2. im sorry, i phrased that wrong. hydrogen cells and cars will produce co2 over their life time because the process of making hydrogen produces a lot of co2. over their lifetime hydrogen cars will produce more carbon than gas cars.

oil takes millions of years to form and WILL run out,

All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas. â€

— William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December 2005[45]

“ It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive. â€

— Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell, October 2008[46]

but thats irrelevant. oil destroys us. i.e. the gulf, air ,climate change etc. ( which is real btw)

[Harry P.]

oil takes millions of years to form and WILL run out,

All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas. "

— William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December 2005[45]

That's exactly the point.

I don't agree with Bill (and whatever source he's found) that the earth is constantly replenishing its own oil supply. I think, like the Exxon-Mobil guy said, that most of the easily-accessible oil has already been tapped. Sure, there's still some left that we haven't yet pumped to the surface... but we're getting to the point now where the remaining oil reserves are of the type that are going to take a lot more effort (and expense) to get at... and there's a point where it won't make any economic sense for us to go after it anymore. I mean, sure, there are potentially billions of barrels in the oil sands of Canada, but if the cost of extracting and refining that oil means $10/gallon gas prices, it's just not realistic.

The days of cheap oil are over, and the days of easily accessible/easily refineable oil are numbered. The question now is, how badly do we want to hang onto our oil-based transportation technology? How much are we going to be willing to pay for a gallon of gas in order to keep the status quo going? Is $10 a gallon the breaking point before we get serious about developing another way to go? Yeah, it may seem extreme today to think that gas could ever cost $10 a gallon... but just a few years ago it seemed crazy to think that gas would ever cost $5 a gallon... and we're just about there.

[Guest Johnny]

Do you really think it is in their best interest to say anything other than that???

Hey!!! Way back when Popular Mechanics Mag said we would have flying cars before now!!!

I want my flying car!!!

[mikemodeler]

So Harry, you gonna trade that Mustang in on a Volt and get a headstart?

I am sure we will see new technology in the vehicles we drive, I would just like to see some refinement of what is already available (CNG, Hybrid, etc) before we jump into the unknown.

[Rob Hall]

Well in reality we probably will not run out of oil, we will however at some point run out of commercially viable oil. The U.S. sits on more oil than the Middle East, however getting the majority out of the ground involves either getting it out of shale, or our own oil sands, neither of which are cheap, so the investment isn't being made. Besides I've long thought this country's long-term energy policy was to use up the world's oil first, then we'd have all of it.

This conversation has been an interesting exercise in paranoia and far-out technology dreaming. But as is the usual case the here and now falls somewhere in the middle. Despite all the noise on both sides about either government control or the evils of urban sprawl, the vast majority of this country is the middle of nowhere rural.

Actually, according to the 2000 census, only about 20% of the US population is rural..I would assume the number is smaller now.

Census: Urban vs Rural

[Harry P.]

So Harry, you gonna trade that Mustang in on a Volt and get a headstart?

Uh, no.

And if I ever do buy a hybrid, you can bet it won't be one that costs $40K and only goes 30 or so miles per charge!

[Rob Hall]

Uh, no.

And if I ever do buy a hybrid, you can bet it won't be one that costs $40K and only goes 30 or so miles per charge!

For $40k, I want closer to 400hp and 18mpg.. My next new car will most likely have Ford's new 5.0 V8 or a Hemi.

[Jairus]

concerning hydrogen cars and co2. im sorry, i phrased that wrong. hydrogen cells and cars will produce co2 over their life time because the process of making hydrogen produces a lot of co2. over their lifetime hydrogen cars will produce more carbon than gas cars.

That is only if we use coal fired power plants to produce the electric power. You should be clear! But Hydroelectric power, solar power and nuclear power produce NO co2 at all!

but thats irrelevant. oil destroys us. i.e. the gulf, air ,climate change etc. ( which is real btw)

No, it is not!

To believe that we puny humans can have that much effect on the climates of this huge planet is the height of hubris.

Global climate change due to carbon emission is pretty much debunked by science all over the planet.

Sure, some still believe...

But there are some that still believe in flying saucers. Just saying...

Edited June 2, 2011 by Jairus