Tamiya Blog, The crisis of plastic model industry

[martinfan5]

From the Tamiya Blog

https://tamiyablog.com/2018/06/the-crisis-of-plastic-model-industry/

By Nakamura Takahito of Response emerging media

At the “57th Shizuoka Hobby Show” held at Twin Messe in Shizuoka for the four days from 10th to 13th May, a press conference was held where the leaders of manufacturers gathered.

At the beginning, Shizuoka model teaching cooperative representative, Mr. Shunsaku Tamiya, president of Tamiya model, talked about the current state of the model industry. To my surprise, as far as the plastic model is concerned, Shizuoka Hobby Show is now the most fulfilling show in the world. Previously, the Spielwaren Messe held in Nuremberg, Germany lived being said to be the world’s largest hobby show, but with regard to the plastic model, mainly because of the economic downturn in southern Europe, the spot is lacking in spirit It is said that it is. On the contrary, Shizuoka Hobby Show says that due to the collection of buyers from Southeast Asia, which has shown remarkable growth recently, Twin Messe, which has been held for many years now, is in a state of capacity shortage.

The Asian market including China and Japan seems to be booming now. And it seems that the hobby show is being held in Shanghai and Beijing etc. in China, but many buyers in Southeast Asian countries gather in this Shizuoka because there are distrust of mutual makers and no new products are displayed in the show . That is the driving force to push Shizuoka Hobby Show to the world’s best show.

It is certainly the world’s best trade fair as a plastic model show globally. Also, looking at miniature cars, a number of brands, mainly in China, are entering the Japanese market. However, even if it is a plastic model or a miniature car, there is no doubt that it has come to a corner.

Shamanism in the plastic model industry

As a big news in the model industry, a company named Hobico, a big North American Distributor, applied for the application of the Corporate Rehabilitation Act in January 2018 and was effectively sold. Along with this, in Japan manufacturer Hasegawa Co., Ltd. has been hit hard by a relationship that had exported plastic models throughout this country through this hobby. Furthermore, the long-established store of Plamoel, which was Hasegawa’s import source to the Japanese market, the level was the relationship which was acquired by Hobico as mentioned above, and this also stopped production in April 2018. The current level says that all dies and molds are being transferred to the German level.

As a result, as a model manufacturer in the US, only a few brands including the AMT under Round 2 survive. It is a situation where you can not see the future how the American level will go.

Incidentally, under the umbrella level, the brand called Monogram which blew the world in Japan in the 1960s was also included. On the other hand, in Europe, there are model makers at the top of the German level, for example, the largest hobby maker in the UK, Hornby (with Plastic model brands, Air Fix under the umbrella) will also be transferred to Phoenix Asset Management Company in 2017 Management has changed with the sale of shares, the management of Elele in France has been changed many times, now the management is continued under the new owner in 2016, the feeling of tapering is extraordinary. There are emerging plastic model makers in China, especially Macao, especially the transponder with mold factory in Macao has made a breakthrough brand and has grown rapidly to threaten Japanese manufacturers.

Even in the Japanese market, Kyosho who swept the market with radio controlled computers worsened management, sold all the shares to Shinsei Bank investment fund, Rembrandt HD, and plan to regenerate. The project itself is continuing.

Tapered hobby demand

Change in the world of miniature cars also stand out. As it used to be, mini cars are no longer being sold, and if you make a mold for production of one model, you are in a situation where it can not be sold enough for its mold cost to be amortized. For this reason, the resin model is making a difference in width, replacing the die casting model that requires a mold.

When comparing die casting and resin, you can not make a gimmick that was possible with die casting such as opening a door or opening a hood, for example with a resin. There is also a fear of deformation due to aged deterioration. However, as it is possible to produce small quantities accordingly, many manufacturers are turning their attention to resin models at present. Especially recently the quality of the resin has dramatically improved, and the production method is also changing due to the appearance of 3D printers. Of course, if it says to the manufacturer, he seems to feel a big appeal to die casting, but at present it seems that there is a fear of breakage of profit and it is impossible to get out at hand.

As you know, the plastic model also needs a mold by injection molding, and it is necessary to make a number more than a certain number for its amortization, but it is difficult to clear it, and when it comes to miniature cars it raises a new mold The fact that the number of plastic models produced is decreasing.

Consumer preferences have also changed. It is certain that few children are interested in making things. Tamiya also admits the fact that consumers in the hobby industry are aging. Even if you look at the hobby show, it is remarkable that many of the end users occupy most middle-aged elderly people. Whether the hobby that makes up things will be lost as it is, I feel like I am having a real turn at this moment. Specialized the talk with the car and attracted the attention stock of this year’s “Hobby Show”. Plastic model is incredible …

 

[bbowser]

This pretty much sums up what's been discussed here many times.  The market is fragmenting, new tools don't pay for themselves, kids today look elsewhere for entertainment.

[fumi]

I am not too worried for the market on a whole.  The Chinese market is booming and it is just at the beginning, there is plenty of potential for growth.  Ditto for the Southeast Asian market, it appears to be on an upward trend.  The old markets may have stagnated but new markets are emerging.

Airfix seems to be doing ok, Hasegawa is on a run, Aoshima has slowed down a bit but it is to be expected after the huge amount of new releases in the past 10 years.  Kyosho is turning its focus on drones, it may work out for them.  There are also new-comers like Modelers, Beemax and Belkits who play to a less mainstream, more highend niche market and they too are doing fine at this moment.

Tamiya is actually more of a uncertainty.  They have a monopoly on Mini-4WD, but that market has been on decline for over 20 years.  While they still release new RC cars (mostly new body on existing chassis), new tools for scale model have slowed to a halt.  Their diversification to female-oriented decoration series also doesn't seem to work out as good as they expected.

Edited June 28, 2018 by fumi

[peteski]

I had the pleasure of attending the Shizuoka Hobby Show in 2005 and I can say that it was an amazing experience.  They even had a military jets flyover!  Not something you see during other hobby shows.

[martinfan5]

On 6/27/2018 at 8:09 PM, fumi said:

I am not too worried for the market on a whole.  The Chinese market is booming and it is just at the beginning, there is plenty of potential for growth.  Ditto for the Southeast Asian market, it appears to be on an upward trend.  The old markets may have stagnated but new markets are emerging.

Airfix seems to be doing ok, Hasegawa is on a run, Aoshima has slowed down a bit but it is to be expected after the huge amount of new releases in the past 10 years.  Kyosho is turning its focus on drones, it may work out for them.  There are also new-comers like Modelers, Beemax and Belkits who play to a less mainstream, more highend niche market and they too are doing fine at this moment.

Tamiya is actually more of a uncertainty.  They have a monopoly on Mini-4WD, but that market has been on decline for over 20 years.  While they still release new RC cars (mostly new body on existing chassis), new tools for scale model have slowed to a halt.  Their diversification to female-oriented decoration series also doesn't seem to work out as good as they expected.

I am not too worried either, the hobby is going through a transition like it has many times in the past, as you pointed out ,  there is a lot of growth outside of the mainstream kit companies in Japan.  

 

[randyc]

Interesting.   As a comparison - Harley announced it is moving some production overseas.  Part of this, according to CNN (never thought I'd ever say THAT), is that the American Harley market is aging to a point where the consumer is agining out.  Buying their LAST bike, not their irst or second.   Same with models - the main demographics is aging.   Heck, I'm a young sprout in this hobby at 52.  And even I am not as crazed about it now as I was back in the day.  I've built MOST of the kits being reissued and don't have a lot of interest in so many of the reissues.   I have only bought like 6 kits in the last 2 years.  And haven't finished all of those.  And still have a ton of things unbuilt.  

I am going back and buying the "mint" cars - Franklin and Danbury because they made the things I want now.  And the prices - if you shop carefully, you can get them delivered for about same price as a new kit and paints to paint with.  Can or will I ever be able to build a Tucker?  Doubtful.  48 Chrysler?  Doubtful.   

And young people are doing other things.  Other than modeling or buying high end motorcycles.  Or going to a bar to hear a live band.  Or, or, or. 

So I don't see a rosy future for American cars model kits in the American market.  WE'll see.