what's it take? concept to package?

[KingSix]

I'm bookmarking this, and I'll come back in five years to see where all of this may be. I'm betting that in five years there will not be a high-quality home 3D printing system that can produce satisfactory results for over 75% of car modelers, with most not able or willing to master the software.

Now your assuming the internet will be here in 5 years ..LOL

[sjordan2]

Now your assuming the internet will be here in 5 years ..LOL

That's what I said in 1990. I could be wrong.

[KingSix]

That's what I said in 1990. I could be wrong.

hahaha, good one.

check this out, this is really motivating me to cash in some stocks and jump in feet first .. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67cev_zcXJw

[Tom Geiger]

I'm bookmarking this, and I'll come back in five years to see where all of this may be. I'm betting that in five years there will not be a high-quality home 3D printing system that can produce satisfactory results for over 75% of car modelers, with most not able or willing to master the software.

I'll agree and put this into the same category as buying a lathe. A lot of guys bought lathes, with a larger group of us balking at the price. Some guys, mainly those with professional background, have done some amazing things with them. While others made piles of metal shavings and gave up.

I think the use 5 years out will be pretty visible in the hobby but most of us will be buying the finished parts from the aftermarket. Or the printers will produce masters that the aftermarket will cast resin from. There are already people doing interesting things.

For me, I didn't buy a lathe because for the type of models I do, I didn't see the need to learn a whole new craft. If I wanted to master a lathe, I would have worked in a machine shop. But I have bought parts from others.

I don't think I'd be one to buy the 3D printer, again I don't think my modeling (and meager production!) would justify the purchase. Again, I'd be happy to buy the parts from others.

Keep in mind that we still have guys in our clubs who refuse to use computers and cell phones.

[oldcarfan]

I have a feeling that 3d printers will eventually become as common as regular printers are now. I also have a feeling that the hobby will move to an open source kind of thing where skilled hobbyists will design a file for a particular car or tank or something and make it available for free download. Maybe we need to start a Napster for modelers!

[KingSix]

I'll agree and put this into the same category as buying a lathe. A lot of guys bought lathes, with a larger group of us balking at the price. Some guys, mainly those with professional background, have done some amazing things with them. While others made piles of metal shavings and gave up.

I think the use 5 years out will be pretty visible in the hobby but most of us will be buying the finished parts from the aftermarket. Or the printers will produce masters that the aftermarket will cast resin from. There are already people doing interesting things.

For me, I didn't buy a lathe because for the type of models I do, I didn't see the need to learn a whole new craft. If I wanted to master a lathe, I would have worked in a machine shop. But I have bought parts from others.

I don't think I'd be one to buy the 3D printer, again I don't think my modeling (and meager production!) would justify the purchase. Again, I'd be happy to buy the parts from others.

Keep in mind that we still have guys in our clubs who refuse to use computers and cell phones.

3-D master , then resin cast ? That would be ridiculous .. So you buy a 3-D printer, then make the part, then buy all the materials to resin cast , then make the mold from the master, then cast the part ( which is never as good as the master ), when you could just have the 3-D printer and make copies to your little hearts content ... you really don't need a slide rule to figure out what the more sensible thing to do here is .. and comparing a 3-D printer to operating a lathe is like comparing Open Heart Surgery to lancing a boil .. the is nothing complicated about turning a switch off & on ...

[oldcarfan]

I don't think that 3d printing will push the companies out of business. I think it more likely that it will be more of a supplement, filling the niches the way that resin manufacturers do now.

[Harry P.]

I don't think that 3d printing will push the companies out of business...

...said the blacksmith as he watched a "horseless carriage" sputter by...

[Tom Geiger]

and comparing a 3-D printer to operating a lathe is like comparing Open Heart Surgery to lancing a boil .. the is nothing complicated about turning a switch off & on ...

Note that today nearly all of us have color printers attached to a PC. But how many guys actually make their own decals? I have guys asking me to make them decals. What stops them from making their own? For some it's the graphics program. Some cannot even scan. I recently had someone who got some plates from the Acme site and couldn't figure out how to reduce them to the correct size. Very elementary things to me, but beyond the skills of some. And for some the road block is spending the $8 on decal paper! LOL

And what is the cost of the media to make 3D models? It may be cost prohibitive to crank out parts and sell them. Keep in mind that printer ink is costly today.

[KingSix]

...said the blacksmith as he watched a "horseless carriage" sputter by...

Amen to that.. think of it this way, if you could go on the web, buy a "canned " program of a kit YOU WANT to build, pay a small fee for it, download it, have it made right in your home in a matter of hours, then build it, as many times as you want.. or , go online, order a kit, wait however long it takes said kit to arrive, then build it once , which one would you choose ? Not something you'd have to think to hard on, I hope anyway ..

[Harry P.]

I am positive that model "kits" in the form of software that you buy online from the manufacturer and simply download and print out on your benchtop 3-D printer will soon be as common as downloading music or smart phone apps or e-books is right now.

[KingSix]

Note that today nearly all of us have color printers attached to a PC. But how many guys actually make their own decals? I have guys asking me to make them decals. What stops them from making their own? For some it's the graphics program. Some cannot even scan. I recently had someone who got some plates from the Acme site and couldn't figure out how to reduce them to the correct size. Very elementary things to me, but beyond the skills of some. And for some the road block is spending the $8 on decal paper! LOL

And what is the cost of the media to make 3D models? It may be cost prohibitive to crank out parts and sell them. Keep in mind that printer ink is costly today.

The media is cheaper than all the supplies for resin cast. And there will always be people who don't want, or have the skill or drive or what have you to do something on their own .. Now I just got done having a conversation via email with a Stratasys rep. I also have a "brother" I served with in the Corps who works for Dreamworks SKG , who does, guess what ? 3-D modeling. Now, if I can get the printer I was for say 5k , buy this time next year I could be producing scale model kits or, selling a one time use program to people who have or have access to a 3-D printer of their own. That being said, I could produce kits, bodies, parts, for less than a 3rd of what it costs to resin cast, I don't have to deal with any artistic attitude from the artists that make the masters ... now guess what.. a few other guys like me get the same idea and BOOM, resin casting goes the way of the Dodo bird .. which is no great loss in my estimation because of the sketchy suppliers out their that advertise stuff for sale only to find it's not in stock .. or there is a huge lead time or etc etc .. with 3-D someone can order a kit, it can be produced in less than a few hours, boxed , shipped the same day. I fail to see how this is a bad thing ?

[Art Anderson]

I don't think that 3d printing will push the companies out of business. I think it more likely that it will be more of a supplement, filling the niches the way that resin manufacturers do now.

Of course, the up-front cost of everything needed for a decent 3D printer HAS to be considered! I just spent some time looking at these machines, and at this time, they are not cheap to buy at all! At upwards of $2,700 for say, a MakerBot plus another $1,500 for their "replicator" (the device for scanning what it is one wants to copy, the very first part (regardless of what that might be) will be well in excess of $4,000. Even 10 parts reduces the cost of each part (not counting materials) to $400 each, 100 parts gets it down to $40 per part and so on.

What this means is simply that it would take an awful lot of parts made in a reasonably short period of time for any modeler, doing this at home, to begin to have a set of machinery for creating model parts at costs per part to make it at all advantageous. Now, I have little doubt that there will be (if not already!) modelers who will adopt this technology--but frankly, it will be simply little more than an addition, rather than replacing any existing molding technology, from resin-casting to mass production of plastic model kits for a lot of years yet to come. Just the history of the computers we all use to communicate on this forum should point that out--desktops have been around for about 35 years now, they have increased exponentially in their power and capabilities, but it took until the very late 1990's for them to come down in price below the $2000 mark for a more-or-less basic machine.

I have also seen, and held in my very own hands 3D printed tooling mockups for model car kits--and while granting that those were done specifically for the purpose of evaluating things like accuracy of dimension, shapes and contours, and the body shells showed every evidence of having had their surfaces smoothed out to eliminate the "ridging" that necessarily happens with the "layering" of the material from multiple passes of the printer as it built up the shapes. On body shells with their fairly shallow curves and shapes, those "layers" were not highly visible in areas where they could not be smoothed down, it's been the small parts such as rear axles/differentials, engine blocks and manifolds where that "layered" effect was VERY visible indeed. If one has ever seen the layered thin plywood kits of say, dinosaurs, etc., or even read an architect's or engineer's contour topographical map, that's very much what those parts resembled, albeit with very small contour "lines" around all the rounded (or raised) surfaces.

I would be pretty sure that this all is a matter of the "resolution" of the printer--the finer the resolution, the thinner the layers of plastic printing, which would result in ever finer "ridges" on rounded or tapered edges of the finished part. But, I have to believe that the finer the resolution of the 3D printer, the more expensive the machine will be--not to mention the increased printing time due to the higher number of passes the printer will have to make due to a thinner layer of material per pass.

Lots, and lots of things to consider in all this, I think; but I believe that it's going to be a number of years before we see anything like a consumer-priced 3D printer that will produce a model car body shell that even comes close to the standard of surface finish we've all come to expect in the model car body shells we see when we first fondle a new one with our bare fingers.

Art

[KingSix]

Yes I agree, the cheaper machines right now do give that "layered" or ridged" look. Now, the Stratasys 500 Connex does not . But you pay a much higher price for that machine. over 5 k .. now operating in my shop, which is on my property , I'm pretty sure I could pump out quite a few items in an 8 hr day. Overhead is virtually nonexistent, other than the cost of a decent website (one that actually shows what's in stock or on hand ). Now, considering I would get the initial start up from cashing in some stocks, it really wouldn't be coming coming out of my "living expenses" it all looks good on paper right now, but I'd need to see a completed body at least , get some opinions on them and maybe a kit before I'd sink "X" amount of dollars into this. But then again, any business venture is a risk, right ?

[Harry P.]

The first commercially available cell phone came on the market in 1984. The Motorola DynaTac was about the size of a brick (literally!) and cost... are you ready?... FOUR THOUSAND DOLLARS. And that's in 1984 dollars.

Today's smart phones are the size of a deck of cards, have capabilities not even dreamed of in 1984, and cost one tenth the price of a DynaTac–or less.

I think you get my point.

[KingSix]

The first commercially available cell phone came on the market in 1984. The Motorola DynaTac was about the size of a brick (literally!) and cost... are you ready?... FOUR THOUSAND DOLLARS. And that's in 1984 dollars.

Today's smart phones are the size of a deck of cards, have capabilities not even dreamed of in 1984, and cost one tenth the price of a DynaTac–or less.

I think you get my point.

They also contain more technology than the entire Apollo space program !

[Art Anderson]

The first commercially available cell phone came on the market in 1984. The Motorola DynaTac was about the size of a brick (literally!) and cost... are you ready?... FOUR THOUSAND DOLLARS. And that's in 1984 dollars.

Today's smart phones are the size of a deck of cards, have capabilities not even dreamed of in 1984, and cost one tenth the price of a DynaTac–or less.

I think you get my point.

There is a major difference between a cell phone (or even a smart phone) and any 3D printer, and that is--the virtual lack of any mechanical systems in the cell phone, Harry.

With a 3D printer, you of course have the digital component, which controls the thing--but the rest of it relies on fairly complicated and certainly highly precise mechanical machinery, and therein lies the rub.

Art

[Harry P.]

There is a major difference between a cell phone (or even a smart phone) and any 3D printer, and that is--the virtual lack of any mechanical systems in the cell phone, Harry.

With a 3D printer, you of course have the digital component, which controls the thing--but the rest of it relies on fairly complicated and certainly highly precise mechanical machinery, and therein lies the rub.

Art

Today's 2-D color printers are very complex mechanical devices that can lay down yellow, cyan, magenta, and black ink in precise amounts and in precise positions. Yet they work flawlessly. And a top-quality color printer is within financial reach of just about anyone. Heck, you can get a color printer for less than a hundred bucks.

Again... I think you see my point.

[KingSix]

Not one that prints white ;-)

[Art Anderson]

Today's 2-D color printers are very complex mechanical devices that can lay down yellow, cyan, magenta, and black ink in precise amounts and in precise positions. Yet they work flawlessly. And a top-quality color printer is within financial reach of just about anyone. Heck, you can get a color printer for less than a hundred bucks.

Again... I think you see my point.

Of course, color printers come in all sizes, shapes and capabilities. At work, I see color printers that far outshine anything you or I are likely to buy--and there are a couple of color plotters that cost many thousands of dollars. It's just like digital cameras--a basic one can be had for mere peanuts compared to what any digicam cost 20 years ago--but yet a top quality one can set you back 15-20 times what a basic point and shoot would.

[Harry P.]

Of course, color printers come in all sizes, shapes and capabilities. At work, I see color printers that far outshine anything you or I are likely to buy--and there are a couple of color plotters that cost many thousands of dollars. It's just like digital cameras--a basic one can be had for mere peanuts compared to what any digicam cost 20 years ago--but yet a top quality one can set you back 15-20 times what a basic point and shoot would.

My point is that an affordable, quality 3-D printer that sells at a "consumer friendly" price is inevitable. It's coming. No doubt. It's just a matter of when. And seeing as how we're not talking about Buck Rogers "what if" pie-in-the-sky technology, but actual, existing, operational technology (albeit at a high price as of today), my guess is sooner rather than later. I'd guess within 10 years.

[martinfan5]

The future of 3D printing is here, like it or not, and its only to get better, or not, we dont know for fact, but betting against it would be bad idea, so get on broad, or get left behind, its your choice .

You can make all the arguments about the cost you want, but guess what, there are people out there willing to pay to play, and just with everything else, the price will come down, you can set your watch to that, how much, again, we have to wait and see, so I dont get why people are still continuing to make excuses as to why 3D printing wont take off, I am pretty sure same the same things were said about the automobile, the airplane, and so on.

I know this is a hard concept, but life is moving forward, technology is moving forward, dont be afraid of 3D printing, embrace it, which I see very little of that here, people act as 3D printing is the devil, I have seen stuff model related 3D printed on other forums and its amazingly how far its already come, I cant wait to see where 3D printing is this time next year, I think we are lot closer then we all think.

[Harry P.]

I cant wait to see where 3D printing is this time next year, I think we are lot closer then we all think.

I think you're right.

[KingSix]

This may be the time to take a leap .. at worst I'm out a few grand, at best I could make a serious chunk of change ...

[sjordan2]

I have a feeling that 3d printers will eventually become as common as regular printers are now. I also have a feeling that the hobby will move to an open source kind of thing where skilled hobbyists will design a file for a particular car or tank or something and make it available for free download. Maybe we need to start a Napster for modelers!

Remember what happened to Napster? In our hobby, things would have to be produced in a certain quantity to draw attention, but the copyright vultures are always around the corner. Note that Model Factory Hiro has just discontinued production and sale of all of its Ferrari kits.