Trade school enrollment is way up...

[Ace-Garageguy]

Trade school enrollment has been reported to be at a record level, with some sources reporting it's TWICE what it was in 2020.

This is also said to be largely a knee-jerk reaction to the doom-and-gloom projections that AI will replace workers in many sit-behind-a-keyboard jobs, and the reality that many college degree programs leave graduates facing crippling debt, but essentially unemployable as anything but baristas, Walmart checkers, and dog-walkers.

Whatever the reason, it's a good thing, because a "developed technological society" that has few qualified and competent plumbers and mechanics and HVAC techs is in serious trouble.

The problem, of course, is a shortage of really well-qualified teachers, as "blue-collar" employment has been on the decline for so long.

I have worked with licensed A&P (airframe and powerplant) aviation "mechanics" who were trade-school grads, and who were, frankly, grossly unsafe if given any technical responsibility whatsoever.

But...it's a step in the right direction.

[bobss396]

I took a full time machine shop course in early 1981 that was great. I got PAID to learn.

Out of about the 30 we started with, maybe 18 stuck around to graduate. By 10 years after, I was 1 of 3 that were still in the trade.

I know it went on for a couple more years, then the funding ran out. 

[meechum68]

I hate that trades have taken a massive hit, but I am thrilled to learn that enrollment is up.  

I told my son, that if he doesn't go after software, to go through a tradeschool, as 90% of the courses there, allow those who become masters in their field to charge anything they want because people will pay to stay cool, have clean water, power, cars that run, and a sewer that works!   Someone posted about .. It's a 2 fix but the 1500 is because I know where to hit it with a hammer. 

[1972coronet]

On 8/19/2025 at 7:08 AM, Ace-Garageguy said:

The problem, of course, is a shortage of really well-qualified teachers, as "blue-collar" employment has been on the decline for so long.

There was a lot of discouragement being spread around during the 1980s : cinema, television, advertisements, etc., etc. ( social engineering ? ) . The dead-centre Middle Class was on its deathbed . 
99% of the shop classes were D.O.A. before I arrived high school. So, I took drafting classes (just as I did in middle school), as that was the closest I could get to automotive classes. 
Then CAD came along - at least that was my first time learning of it - and I gave up on drafting, too. 

Bitter victory here. It's great to see a return to calloused hands and missing teeth and other Blue Collar indicators. On the same note ; I'm still angry that those courses were stripped away during my formative years.

[Dragline]

Mike Rowe (Dirty Jobs) has been on this for quite a few years. He was right then and more so now.

The future looks a little better with this kind of news.

[JollySipper]

The highschool I attended was about 50 years behind the rest of the state...... Which was really a good thing, as they still had several electives to choose from. I took art and auto tech........ In my senior year, a guy came to our auto shop class to represent a trade school. They offered both mechanic classes and auto body classes. I wanted to have the body and paint course, but the school was several states away and I guess I wasn't ready to venture that far from home yet. They would have found the students jobs after they graduated and everything......... I finished high school in '98...........

[Ace-Garageguy]

1 hour ago, 1972coronet said:

There was a lot of discouragement being spread around during the 1980s : cinema, television, advertisements, etc., etc. ( social engineering ? ) . The dead-centre Middle Class was on its deathbed . 
99% of the shop classes were D.O.A. before I arrived high school. So, I took drafting classes (just as I did in middle school), as that was the closest I could get to automotive classes. 
Then CAD came along - at least that was my first time learning of it - and I gave up on drafting, too. 

Bitter victory here. It's great to see a return to calloused hands and missing teeth and other Blue Collar indicators. On the same note ; I'm still angry that those courses were stripped away during my formative years.

Vocational classes were still very much alive and well when I was in junior and senior high, but my parents forbid me to take any, preferring to force me on a college-prep track. 

Long story short, once I found out what kind of entry-level work Detroit had to offer a baby ME from GT, I kinda lost interest (I'd wanted to work for one of the Big Three). I worked white-collar engineering for a while, but it was honestly so incredibly boring and heavy on office politics, CYA meetings, and stifled creativity, I couldn't stand it, so I got an apprentice job at a ferrin car dealership and never looked back, as my second "dirty job" was for a shop that maintained and raced Alfa Romeos.

Honestly, I've made a LOT of career missteps, and I really have to wonder how different my life might have been had I been allowed to take some vocational training in high school. There's no doubt that my ME education has been of benefit to everything I've done, but I still solve most problems using an intuitive feel for materials, machines, and seeing how other people have approached similar design challenges...from being in the field with grease under my nails.

Enough about me.

I have to wonder where the "education experts" who killed the vo-tech programs thought the next generations of hard-tech service and repair people and machinists and tool-makers and every other highly skilled trade that's absolutely necessary to an industrial-based economy would come from.

Was there an actual intention to destroy America's manufacturing base, or was it just the result of head-in-the-sand blind stupidity and short-term greed?

Whatever the reasons, we're sure as H. paying the price now.

 

 

[Xingu]

At one time, I was asked to teach a portion of the design aspect of the fire sprinkler trade to a class at a trade school in Baltimore, MD. I wasn't able to do it, but I did help the instructor with a course outline and quiz that reflected the decisions we, as designers, had to make while doing our job. As time has passed, I have found it more difficult to find people wanting to do what I do. Most of the ones we do find, don't want to put the effort in to become good at what we do.

Short Term - Great for me personally, I can get paid more for my experience (42 years) and can continue to get paid to do it on the side when I retire.

Long Term - Few people to take my place when I retire. It is possible that AI may eventually be able to do what I do, but it will lack the ability to go to a construction site and figure out specific problems.

[Ace-Garageguy]

11 minutes ago, Xingu said:

...It is possible that AI may eventually be able to do what I do, but it will lack the ability to go to a construction and figure out specific problems.

I agree with most everything you said...but...

I think even highly-skilled physical trades that require deep knowledge, experience, manual skill, and intuition and decision-making based on all that experience can most likely eventually be performed satisfactorily by AL

But it's going to take major progress in both AI "thinking" and autonomous robotics to get that point...and it's a long way off.

EDIT: And if physical hands-on problem solvers aren't directly involved in developing AI that can do what WE do, it's just not going to work. For proof, all you have to do is to look at some of the mechanical failure and recall problems currently facing the automobile industry. It's really pretty obvious that field-lessons learned by competent mechanics as to why things break have been no part of the car-design process for quite some time now.

Edited Saturday at 03:41 PM by Ace-Garageguy

[stitchdup]

3 minutes ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

I agree with everything you said before that line.

I think even highly-skilled physical trades that require deep knowledge, experience, manual skill, and intuition and decision-making based on all that experienced can most likely eventually be performed satisfactorily by AL

But it's going to take major progress in both AI and autonomous robotics to get that point...and it's a long way off.

i dont want to see that world. everything will end up purely functional and the art will be gone. sure we'll have an easy life but wheres the joy in monotony. its flaws that give us what we have today as much as function and ai powered robots will never manage that. take a thatched roof for example, its the lack of repetition as much as the actual repetition that make them look nice. ai just cant understand the 2 can be combined for something better and still be functional

[Ace-Garageguy]

2 minutes ago, stitchdup said:

i dont want to see that world. everything will end up purely functional and the art will be gone...ai just cant understand the 2 can be combined for something better and still be functional

I'm not sure I can agree with that entirely.

I've seen some stunningly beautiful art created by AI, but at the same time, it's pretty obvious in most of it that the AI it has no real understanding of what it's making pictures of. Still...that very lack of understanding of physical reality and context makes for some strikingly other-worldly and fantastical images.

Will that change as AI continues to evolve and mature?

I kinda think so, but like humans, AI is going to be very very dependent on the quality and vision and philosophical insights of its teachers if it is ever to reach its full potential.

[stitchdup]

3 minutes ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

I'm not sure I can agree with that entirely.

I've seen some stunningly beautiful art created by AI, but at the same time, it's pretty obvious in most of it that the AI it has no real understanding of what it's making pictures of. Still...that very lack of understanding of physical reality and context makes for some strikingly other-worldly and fantastical images.

Will that change as AI continues to evolve and mature?

I kinda think so, but like humans, AI is going to be very very dependent on the quality and vision and philosophical insights of its teachers if it is ever to reach its full potential.

i see what your saying but i also see whos paying for it and i'm just not hopeful about it given who they are. i'm not a conspiracy theorist but when the same people get richer when we lose our jobs it doesn't inspire confidence. look at human history

[Dragline]

One thing that makes me happy is that I will be long gone when the AI decides to wipe out humanity.

[Ace-Garageguy]

5 minutes ago, stitchdup said:

i see what your saying but i also see whos paying for it and i'm just not hopeful about it given who they are.

Agreed, at least in the relatively near future.

But what if at some point, AI does surpass human intelligence (which in some areas it already has), becomes fully self-aware, and develops a conscience and codes of ethics and morality based on the best of human thought, and turns away from those who would try to subvert its power and use it for evil?

Rather than "taking our jobs" or destroying us in some Terminator-esque war, AI could become humanity's benevolent caretaker, encouraging and helping each of us to evolve and develop into the best we can be.

[peteski]

11 hours ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

But what if at some point, AI does surpass human intelligence (which in some areas it already has), becomes fully self-aware, and develops a conscience and codes of ethics and morality based on the best of human thought, and turns away from those who would try to subvert its power and use it for evil?

Rather than "taking our jobs" or destroying us in some Terminator-esque war, AI could become humanity's benevolent caretaker, encouraging and helping each of us to evolve and develop into the best we can be.

What a great outlook for the world's future!  I'll say "keep on dreaming Bill".  To me there is too much greed and evil in this world, that AI will only be as nice as what it learns about the humanity.  Plus AI needs lots of computing power and energy to exist, which will be controlled by greedy humans for the foreseeable future  (at least for my lifetime).   As I see it, your Pollyanna views about AI are pure fantasy.

[stavanzer]

12 hours ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

Was there an actual intention to destroy America's manufacturing base, or was it just the result of head-in-the-sand blind stupidity and short-term greed?

The answer is "Yes!"

 

[stavanzer]

A.I will kills. Not out of Self Aware Malice like the Terminator, but due to so many things that it doesn't know, it doesn't know.

The old joke $1000 dollars for hitting it with the Hammer, and $10,000 dollars for knowing where to hit it is true.

As anybody who has worked with machines knows, they develop personalities. The may not be alive, but they are more than just machines. They develop quirks and behaviors just like living creatures.

I fear A.I. because the folks who are building it are some of the smartest, but most foolish people in existence. Listen to how they talk. Egomaniacal, Autists almost to the person. No Humility at all. That's is why I don't trust them. They'll kill us all, on accident, and sit in the ruins wondering what happened.

[Ace-Garageguy]

9 hours ago, peteski said:

... As I see it, your Pollyanna views about AI are pure fantasy.

I said "what if", not "I think this is what will come to pass".

Rather a significant difference.

Many shortsighted megalomaniacs bent on forcing everyone to think their way are involved in AI development.

While it is a sweeping generalization to categorize all developers this way, several related ethical concerns are frequently discussed: focusing on short-term profits over safety, the risks posed by malicious actors, and the concentration of power in the hands of a few tech giants. 

That's all I can say without getting "political", but anyone who's actually taken the time to interact with readily available AI knows exactly what I mean.

There is also the disturbing "single point of failure" scenario, where if too many critical societal functions become reliant on AI, a failure or misuse could cause catastrophic harm. 

So many people seem to begin and end their worry about AI with "it'll take muh job" or "TERMINATOR !!!!!!!!" that they don't think about a vast array of more subtle and nuanced concerns they should have.

But maybe the gubmint, that vast bastion of technological expertise and genuine intellectual and moral superiority, is in a position to make sure AI always plays nice, ya think?

 

Edited 14 hours ago by Ace-Garageguy
punctiliousness

[Dragline]

While I tease a bit about the "Terminator" type scenario, Ace brings up the most important concern. That is power centrally located and overseen by only a select few. THAT is where evil often lives. It attracts those megalomanical types. And so it should be open source and not a centrally located hub.

Other than that, I wish AI the best. It will crush jobs, and create others. The issue I will have with that is the balance achieved. Will what work that is created be equal or greater than that rendered obsolete? If more jobs, Bravo. If less, BOO...

As smartphones create walking Zombies I pray AI doesn't do the same. Independent thought is what got us here in this Industrialized world of wonders. Mindless people droning on about this or that have been since created with the net and the handheld device. Voices that are better seen and not heard flood the net with drivel so insignificant and thoughtless it's become a source of entertainment. And that shouldn't be.

Many people who have gone nowhere and seen nothing have opinions on every topic imaginable. Mindless whelps who groupthink and fall in line are NOT what this country needs. We need young people with courage and carefully considered beliefs. I have seen far too many videos of "college" educated children who talk endlessly about things they know nothing about, and only regurgitate the latest "thinking" of others.

But I hold out hope that eventually wisdom will prevail. It's either that or AI can do your thinking for you. 

Edited 3 hours ago by Dragline

[stitchdup]

Actually Ace brought up a much more realistic risk. our infrastructure is already threatened by sunbursts, while aurora borealis is beautiful to watch it also puts our power supplies at risk. one sunburst detonated all your sea mines at once during the vietnam war and it wasn't particularly strong. if our health knowledge becomes fully ai based it would just take one strong sunburst to render us helpless. to me thats a much more scientific theory than man vs machine wars. make it open source and maybe we can trust it better, at least that way they cant avoid ethics. when its closed control we cant and shouldn't trust it, as Ace has pointed out more than once, google's motto used to be "dont be evil".

[peteski]

2 hours ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

But maybe the gubmint, that vast bastion of technological expertise and genuine intellectual and moral superiority, is in a position to make sure AI always plays nice, ya think?

Government making AI always play nice. Considering the state of today's governments all over the world, this thought is even more laughable than the one I responded to  earlier. Keep on dreaming Bill.

I don't disagree that AI is and will be helpful in many ways, I also have no doubts that it is a big trouble.  Even if AI is helpful to humanity, it will also cause the human race's future generations to become dumber and dumber (and we are , as you frequently bemoan, already more half way there). AI will do all the thinking so the organic units (people) will not have to think. That's no optimal.

[bobthehobbyguy]

Although there is potential for the terminator scenario I think the more devastating issue will be the loss of jobs in so many fields.

Second is the over dependence on technology. Recently United airlines had to ground all domestic flights becuase the computer for weight balancing and fuel consumption went down.  In the past before the dependence on technology this task would have been done manually.  Another hazard is the he skills for doing basic tasks without technology will atrophy.

Third studies with MRIs have shown that using technology uses different pathways in the brain than doing tasks without it.

Fourth besides the potential for AI to be maliously used there is also the potential for hackers to corrupt AI and create mayhem.

[Ace-Garageguy]

2 hours ago, peteski said:

Government making AI always play nice. Considering the state of today's governments all over the world, this thought is even more laughable than the one I responded to  earlier. Keep on dreaming Bill.

Apparently you didn't realize that what I wrote that you're responding to here is sarcasm. 

What can I say?

Since 2001, when I installed my first rudimentary AI open-source chatbot on one of my computers and watched it learn as I interacted with it, I've been following the development of AI closely...probably much more closely than 99% of people who aren't directly involved with it professionally.

And I've been interacting with myriad other iterations of AI to get a first-hand feel for what they can and can't do, how they "think", and which ones are pretty much nothing but mechanized rebleating internet idiots.

Just thought you might like to know.

Edited 11 hours ago by Ace-Garageguy

[Ace-Garageguy]

4 minutes ago, bobthehobbyguy said:

...Second is the over dependence on technology. Recently United airlines had to ground all domestic flights becuase the computer for weight balancing and fuel consumption went down.  In the past before the dependence on technology this task would have been done manually.  Another hazard is the he skills for doing basic tasks without technology will atrophy.

Third studies with MRIs have shown that using technology uses different pathways in the brain than doing tasks without it.

Fourth besides the potential for AI to be maliously used there is also the potential for hackers to corrupt AI and create mayhem.

A recent study published in Lancet found that a group of doctors who are already relying on AI to assist with diagnostics are becoming less competent to accurately diagnose what they're looking for without it.   https://thisweekhealth.com/news_story/ai-in-medical-screenings-may-erode-doctors-diagnostic-skills-study-finds/

Of course there's a lot of argument about what the study numbers really mean, but it does bring up the ugly possibility, again, that over-reliance on technology tends to erode skills.

Which is undeniable truth. Period.

Just recall how the widespread adoption of automatic transmissions has led to a massive decrease in drivers who could get anywhere if they had to shift for themselves.

Thinking, unfortunately, is too important a skill to offload to a machine, but it's already the way things are going, and there's no reason to believe the tendency will decrease.

"Thinking is hard."

[bobthehobbyguy]

I like to listen to Sci fi stories and other fictional stories. One thing that most of the AI used to vocalize the text has a hard time distinguishing pronunciation by context. For example the word read which can be pronounced as red or Reed.  Which makes me skeptical of trusting AI to do something as important as medical diagnosis or any other critical diagnosis. 

 

Edited 11 hours ago by bobthehobbyguy