How many car/truck modelers?

[Erik Smith]

I have often wondered how many active, semi-serious to serious car modelers there are. I am sure the manufacturers have an approximation. Any one here have a guess for USA? 10,000? I really don't have a clue. What about worldwide?

In the same train of thought ... If the kit makers have an idea of the number of builders/buyers,, how many kits do they produce of a certain model these days? Say, the new Revell COPO? I have read MPC used to churn out hundreds of thousands of kits annually - total numbers now?

[Harry P.]

Anyone who gives you a number is basically making it up. There's no way to tell.

[Darin Bastedo]

while this is not a scientific approximation, it makes sense to me. there are currently about 35,000 cities $ towns in the USA. if you average things out, I would think it would be safe to assume at least 100 modelers per city or town. that would give you a minimum of 3,500,000 modelers in the USA. another way to calculate it would be to take the number of kits on the market and multiply that by the number of kits needed to be sold to make a profit, and that would give you probably pretty close to the same kind of number. either way the number of people who post on the boards are just the tip of the iceberg compared to the number of model builders.

[Foxer]

They put numbers on and count everything you can imagine these days ... how come we have never seen this? We'd probably have a good idea if you all didn't buy 5 cases of everything!

[ra7c7er]

What do you consider serious? Their are some serious builders that only build one or two models a year and their are some build for fun guys that build 2-3 a month.

Honestly you will never know. Can't really go by how many kits are sold because some guys buy cases upon cases and not every modeler buys one of everything. So you can't count those numbers.

[mikemodeler]

I think you need to define "serious car modeler". I would like to think of myself as a serious car modeler but in reality I buy a lot of kits and start some and finish a few. I subscribe to the 2 car modeling mags, belong to both forums and try to attend a couple of swap meets and shows every year and yet there are probably some out there that do not follow in my footsteps and complete more builds year in and year out.

[Harry P.]

Honestly you will never know. Can't really go by how many kits are sold because some guys buy cases upon cases and not every modeler buys one of everything. So you can't count those numbers.

Exactly. If 15,000 kits of a particular model are sold, there is no way to determine how many different people bought them. There's not even any way to figure out if a model builder bought them. Maybe Aunt Sarah bought a model for her little nephew's birthday. There's no direct correlation between number of kits sold and number of model car builders.

There is really no way to determine how many model builders there are. About the best you could do is take a poll of enough people to represent a statistically meaningful sample and extrapolate the results. Even then, polls can be iffy. There's no way to determine if people who answer a poll are being truthful or not.

[The Modeling Hermit]

There are a couple of safe estimations. It could be guessed that there are twice as many modelers as there would be if there were half as many as there are. One could also assume that there are half as many modelers as there would be if there were twice as many as there are. That's just a guess on my part though.

[Erik Smith]

There are a couple of safe estimations. It could be guessed that there are twice as many modelers as there would be if there were half as many as there are. One could also assume that there are half as many modelers as there would be if there were twice as many as there are. That's just a guess on my part though.

I did this math and it seems to come out a little high, or low.

I am not going to conduct any market research on this as my statistical abilities would be tested by the sample size needed to get enough people to admit they build models.

This was just a thought I have had for a while - I would guess that somebody with resources could do a market analysis and come up with a number. That's not me though. I DO think we should do what we can to encourage every person to try building.

Edited April 9, 2011 by Coyotehybrids

[CAL]

A distributor or marketor guesstimated 17,000 in the States which made up 10% of the world modelers in 1998-99

and that the in the States that number was shrinking where in Europe and Asia was growing.

[crazyjim]

We Da Big Kahuna to talk to the Census Bureau and get the question added to the next census.

[Darin Bastedo]

A distributor or marketor guesstimated 17,000 in the States which made up 10% of the world modelers in 1998-99

and that the in the States that number was shrinking where in Europe and Asia was growing.

that would have to be extremely low. that would mean that half the cities and towns in the contry having no model builders at all, and the other half having but one. For that number to be any where close to accurate, it would be rare to live in the same city as another model builder, yet every city I've lived in I've known dozens. I have troble believing that I'm lucky enough to have lived in the only cities with multiple model builders.

[Art Anderson]

A distributor or marketor guesstimated 17,000 in the States which made up 10% of the world modelers in 1998-99

and that the in the States that number was shrinking where in Europe and Asia was growing.

If one really thinks about it, the number 17,000 is rediculously low. Such a small number of individuals simply could not support the production of one single plastic model kit, let alone the wide variety of model kits offered by what, at least a dozen manufacturers with retail exposure in the US.

There really isn't any good way to estimate how many model car and truck builders are out there, simply because no system exists to enumerate them. The range of model builders runs all the way from the person who might build one or two kits a year, to someone who cranks out several models a week. And with the vast majority of us model builders, a very high percentage are invisible, unknown to the rest of us. Even the largest of model car clubs in any city represent only a snall fraction of who's out there buying and building.

Art

[TA462]

I think 17000 is kind of a low number as well. I figure there are a lot of closet modellers out there. I'm just getting back into the hobby I enjoyed as a kid.

[Monte's Motors]

I our town of 5000, you would be lucky to find 5 who are modelers.

No where near the 100 per town mentioned earlier.

Most online model boards, the highest modeler areas are Michigan, Illinois, and California.

[Harry P.]

A distributor or marketor guesstimated 17,000 in the States which made up 10% of the world modelers in 1998-99

First of all, some guy's "guesstimate" is basically meaningless. And the "10% of world modelers" figure... where did he pull that from? I think we all know... where the sun don't shine.

Second, this is 2011, not 1998-99.

To quote myself, there's no way to know.

If anyone can come up with a reasonable, logical, accurate and indisputable way to count how many modelers there are, please post it here. I guarantee you, you'll be the first.

[CAL]

First of all, some guy's "guesstimate" is basically meaningless. And the "10% of world modelers" figure... where did he pull that from? I think we all know... where the sun don't shine.

Second, this is 2011, not 1998-99.

To quote myself, there's no way to know.

If anyone can come up with a reasonable, logical, accurate and indisputable way to count how many modelers there are, please post it here. I guarantee you, you'll be the first.

Could be, I have no way of knowing.

I do know that I work in a couple hobby stores, one was one of the biggest in the country and a handful of modelers made up 80-90 percent of the stores business. 5-10 were travlers who heard of the store, were in town and wanted to see what it was all about.

and the balance were one time modelers, need to do one for a shcool project or just always wanted to take a crack at one.

So I don't know how you calculate that.

I do know there is no way there is 3 and half million modelers.

[CAL]

I our town of 5000, you would be lucky to find 5 who are modelers.

No where near the 100 per town mentioned earlier.

Most online model boards, the highest modeler areas are Michigan, Illinois, and California.

In metro Denver of 2.7 million might, might, have a 100 regular active modelers.

And I have little doubt there are places, towns and cities that just don't have any modelers.

.003% if you use that as a base line there is 10500 in the US.

I don't think there are that many active modelers around, really. I can't imagine it's anything close to a 6 digit figure much less 7.

Maybe in the entire world there is a million.

Edited April 11, 2011 by CAL

[Erik Smith]

One of the main reasons this number interests me is I am wondering if modeling is really that obscure of a hobby. Considering where it used to be, it seems like it is becoming that way. Do I really care what the real number is? No. This is just curiosity.

I have spent the better part of 6 hours sitting at my bench today. I have lost track of time which is an indication of pure "flow" - getting lost in an activity. As long as I am still building, I dont care if there are 17000 or 3.6 million. But, I do think the more modelers, the more we all benefit.

[moparfarmer]

I live in a city in Canada that has approx 700,000 people. Out of those I bet there isn't 200 that build models. I'am counting

Winnipeg Model Car Club, IPMS, and the numerous(3-4) train clubs in our city.

[CAL]

IMPS only boasts 5000 members across the US and the bulk of those are military modelers.

[Harry P.]

I live in a city in Canada that has approx 700,000 people. Out of those I bet there isn't 200 that build models. I'am counting

Winnipeg Model Car Club, IPMS, and the numerous(3-4) train clubs in our city.

Why would you assume that everyone who builds models is in a club?

I'll bet the vast majority who build are NOT in a club. Club membership probably represents a tiny minority of all who build model cars.

It's like people who like to read. Do you think they all belong to a book club? Of course not... only a tiny minority of people who like to read belong to book clubs. Same with models builders, I'll bet. For every club member, there are probably hundreds, if not thousands, who don't belong to a club.

[CAL]

I'll bet. For every club member, there are probably hundreds, if not thousands, who don't belong to a club.

I doubt it.

[moparfarmer]

Why would you assume that everyone who builds models is in a club?

I'll bet the vast majority who build are NOT in a club. Club membership probably represents a tiny minority of all who build model cars.

It's like people who like to read. Do you think they all belong to a book club? Of course not... only a tiny minority of people who like to read belong to book clubs. Same with models builders, I'll bet. For every club member, there are probably hundreds, if not thousands, who don't belong to a club.

I do know of quite a few, maybe 30-40 that build/collect cars. Can't say for military/planes etc. Probably just as many or slightly more. I do

know that not everybody who builds is not in any kind of club. Most don't like the politics and meeting rules, which we don't have in our small

group.

[Darin Bastedo]

I our town of 5000, you would be lucky to find 5 who are modelers.

No where near the 100 per town mentioned earlier.

Most online model boards, the highest modeler areas are Michigan, Illinois, and California.

The 100 per cite was just a for instance and was an average. Your town might have five but a city like NYC or LA would make up the difference easily.