Where are we headed?

[GTMust]

Since the dawn of history, the human race has dreamed of travelling further than his/her immediate surroundings. In the very beginning, legs and feet were the only method available, but as time progressed, discoveries were made that made the journey easier. Animals were tamed and carried humans and their belongings on their backs. Then came the invention of the wheel. Now our forefathers could ride in slightly more comfort in primitive carts and wagons.... and finally carriages. But the horse (and in some places, other types of large animals!) remained the only known motive power for many centuries.......until the invention of the steam powered and internal combustion engines during the mid 1700's to the late 1800's.

Of course, nothing I have written so far has not be written in some form or other many times over. History books have covered just about every development of transportation since time began. Personally, my interest covers the invention of the internal combustion engine and how it's development and use has transformed the way we live. Look at how far we have come, using that basic knowledge to develop the diverse methods of transportation technology around the world that we use today. And in such a relatively short space of time in human history. But what of the future? How will we live, when our fossil fuel resources are finally depleted? I don't know how many gallons of crude are left in the ground or under the sea for us to drill for. But logic tells me that it must have a limit at sometime.

Don't get me wrong. I'm a car lover. I'm not a banner waving, tree hugging environmentalist who expects everybody to ride bicycles or walk everwhere; or go back to riding horses... (think of the polution that would create!). But I do understand that the time is fast approaching (maybe has already come and past), to get serious about where the future of all forms of transportation are going.

The "experts" have come up with many altenatives to the internal combustion engine. Electric cars.... solar powered cars.... corn and other renewable resource powered cars..... ? All are options that have been presented but are any of them really workable on a world wide scale? All have major limitations. The world population has exploded and people in most of the major countries are now able to afford and buy cars that, just a few years ago, were completely out of their financial (and/or political) reach. When we do finally run out of oil, how many more power stations would we have to build (nuclear?) to allow every one to plug in their electric car overnight. Is that really realistic? Of course not! And the major car companies are suggesting that the electric (or hybrid) vehicles are "the way of the future"?

Can we rely on the experts to save us from ourselves as we drive ourselves into oblivion? Right now we seem to be more interested in saving our environment, and it is, of course, a worthwhile cause. But what happens when we do "save" it? Without transportation, and without the abilty to transfer people and goods from place to place around the world where are we headed?

Just a thought......!

[Guest Johnny]

It won't change. The automobile as we know it will be here still running on fossil fuel long after we are gone.

Just won't be as many people driving. (will be for the wealthy in a two tier society)

It isn't really about the environment, it is about "control"! Control of the people by the government! Look around! Every day you hear they are intruding more into what should be your right to choose because they know what is best for us all and the world!

They want the working class living in "population centers" (the cities) close to our work using public transportation to get around!

[Corvette.Jeff]

its all gonna be irrelevant once the zombies come.

[roadhawg]

  On 5/31/2011 at 11:59 PM, mark taylor said:

If the governments of the world said tomorrow "we'll triple the price of fuel to force you to buy elelctric cars" the populations would strike, riot, revolt or vote out those governments.

Back in 2008, Stephen Chu said we need to find a way to triple the price of gas to match what they pay in Europe. After the Presidential election, Mr. Obama appointed Stephen Chu as our energy secratary. The price has since doubled. Will it triple? We'll see if your statement holds true.

[mikemodeler]

I agree with Mark, the buying public will dictate to a large degree just where we end up. The government will try to "guide" us to a certain point but like most things, we will use our spending power to decide what our future will look like.

As someone who has worked in, on and around the automotive field since 1980, I have seen many changes to the automobile as well as the industry. The biggest challenge in the long term is finding qualified technicians to service the ever growing complex systems that are a part of a modern vehicle. Many high schools have dropped auto shop as a part of budget cuts as well as difficulty in finding instructors and students to be a part of the cirriculum. It takes an incredible amount of training and investment in tools to be able to properly service a modern vehicle, despite some perceptions that it is easier with the diagnostic tools available.

I remain hopeful that I can get another 20 years out of this industry as it has been fun and I enjoy my job but it will depend on whether or not the independent repair facilities can continue to service vehicles.

[Jairus]

If government keeps getting involved, private ownership of automobiles may likely be relegated to only those who work for the government. All else will be required to take public transportation.

That is if we last that long....

[Rob Hall]

Lots of paranoia going around in this thread. I do see electric and hybrid cars continuing to grow in popularity over time along w/ more efficient gasoline powered cars.

[Harry P.]

I think the gasoline-fueled internal combustion-powered auto is definitely on the way out, in the overall "big picture" scheme of things. As technologies develop and mature, we'll eventually be driving cars powered by a different source... electricity, natural gas, nuclear, solar... but I don't think we'll see a major shift to alt-fuel vehicles in our lifetimes.

It's coming... but it'll take a while.

[Dr. Cranky]

I agree with Jairus. I think we'll be lucky if we don't end up with triple-seater bicycles with wooden wheels, and a brain.

Here's a formula for disaster:

NO JOBS + EXPENSIVE ###### (from cheap labor camps) = NO PROGRESS = NO FUN = ZOMBIFICATION!

[mr cheap]

clinton had 2,000 sci guys sign a doc that there was globle warming .. the press pushed that hard for 8 weeks ...but 1 week later 25,000 came to the mall said thats junk sci press did not see them ever not one report ever never

[mr cheap]

arent the walkers due back SOON

[Aaronw]

Eh, its not all doom and gloom. I just did a paper for school on rapid pyrolysis and gasification, two technologies that basically create fuels from trash. I expected to find mostly theoretical stuff but found this stuff is beyond a handful of prototypes, and is starting to enter actual use in small numbers.

Gasification was used during WW2 to create a gas from wood or coal used to power around 1 million cars / trucks in Europe. Gasification fueled on landfill or forest slash is currently being used to power generators up to 100kW. The process is simple enough that there are kits for the do it yourself type with 10kW and 20kW generators which would be sufficient for a decent size home off the grid. Camp Lejune, NC has been powering the bases 1mW power plant through gasification fed by landfill since the late 1990s.

Rapid pyrolysis converts carbon based waste (animal byproducts, forest slash, landfill etc) and turns out bio-oil which can be used as a petrolium feedstock and made into gas or diesel fuel. Price wise it isn't quite there yet, but as gas prices increase and the technology gets more established this will change.

[charlie8575]

I think the best long-term solution is to find a viable, economical, intelligent alternative to gasoline.

To make it truly work, it needs to work in gasoline engines without destroying them like alcohol does.

I think the biggest advances are going to be the man-made petroleum-type substances that I've heard people working on from time to time. I also think that better alternatives to corn-based ethanol needs to be pushed into production.

I don't think the government should in any way, shape or form, force the hand of, or grant favor to, any of these efforts. Let the dust settle on its own.

I do think, like Harry, we'll see major changes in the next 15-20 years. I just hope they're good changes with intelligent, sustainable engineering and chemistry.

Some good reading on the matter.

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/ethanolics-anonymous/

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/headline/is-ethanol-a-good-choice-for-consumers/

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/the-growing-abundance-of-fossil-fuels/

And from way back in 1974 when this was becoming a major issue...

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/the-energy-crisis-alternative-futures/

Take a few minutes to read these. They're all very interesting, well-written, and thoughtful. Whether you agree or not, you'll walk away thinking about it.

Charlie Larkin

[Danno]

  On 6/1/2011 at 4:05 AM, Aaronw said:

Eh, its not all doom and gloom. I just did a paper for school on rapid pyrolysis and gasification, two technologies that basically create fuels from trash. I expected to find mostly theoretical stuff but found this stuff is beyond a handful of prototypes, and is starting to enter actual use in small numbers.

Rapid pyrolysis converts carbon based waste (animal byproducts, forest slash, landfill etc) and turns out bio-oil which can be used as a petrolium feedstock and made into gas or diesel fuel. Price wise it isn't quite there yet, but as gas prices increase and the technology gets more established this will change.

  On 6/1/2011 at 12:28 AM, roadhawg said:

Back in 2008, Stephen Chu said we need to find a way to triple the price of gas to match what they pay in Europe. After the Presidential election, Mr. Obama appointed Stephen Chu as our energy secratary. The price has since doubled. Will it triple? We'll see if your statement holds true.

There you go.

As soon as the inputs of the gasification and rapid pyrolysis technologies are connected to the outputs of the garbage and trash being generated by the current administration, we'll have fuel forever!

Just sayin' ...

[Erik Smith]

  On 6/1/2011 at 12:28 AM, roadhawg said:

Back in 2008, Stephen Chu said we need to find a way to triple the price of gas to match what they pay in Europe. After the Presidential election, Mr. Obama appointed Stephen Chu as our energy secratary. The price has since doubled. Will it triple? We'll see if your statement holds true.

Gas prices are not controlled by the energy secretary. There are things called global corporations that control their portions of the oil supply. They sell to who ever pays the most. Right now, refineries in the US can get more per gallon selling gas to other countries, so that's where the gas goes. This in turn reduces the supply (especially diesel) in the US. When supply is down and demand remains high, prices go up.

As for where we're headed...gasoline powered internal combustion engines are a blip in history. They seem important now because it's hard for a human to understand the scope of time involved. 100 years out of thousands of years of civilization is not much. Out of billions of years it is nothing. There will be alternatives. Electric, solar, or maybe something nobody has thought of yet - who knows?

I like old cars, buy it's such a small part of history. I'm glad I was here to see it.

[Jairus]

An alternative has to be made of SOMETHING!

You cannot make something out of nothing unless you can make a fuel out of a rock or handful of sand.

Creating such a simple 5% "additive" using corn based ethanol alcohol turned out a bust because it jacked up the price of corn, caused shortages in the product and returned a REDUCTION in the mpg of the average automobile!

Whatever you come up with will eventually run out unless it is as plentiful as OIL!

Burning trash can only get you so much fuel. Eventually we will run out of that too.

An alternative to oil needs to be just as plentiful and just as powerful as the fuel our creator placed in bowels of this planet!

There is nothing wrong with oil!

It is not going to run out!

It's just that those who have control of it are worse than any thug Hollywood thought up as a foil for James Bond!

(Trying to control the world, for those in Reo Linda)

They have us over a barrel and those who control the drilling practices in this country are paid off by environmentalists and lock up all the U.S. owned land in the name of "protection of some species nobody really cares about"!!

All the while our standard of living drops and our stand on the world stage gets reduced to 3rd world status paying through the nose just to be able to drive to work each day!

But at least the snowy plover, Alaska caribou and horned owl have places to live.... or whatever.

Sheesh.

[LDO]

  On 6/1/2011 at 4:59 AM, Jairus said:

...There is nothing wrong with oil!

It is not going to run out!...

Sheesh.

How do you know that?

How about Methane as an alternate fuel. We can get it from decomposing human waste. Poop is most definitely a renewable resource.

[Rob Hall]

  On 6/1/2011 at 6:10 AM, LDO said:

How do you know that?

How about Methane as an alternate fuel. We can get it from decomposing human waste. Poop is most definitely a renewable resource.

Jarius needs to keep is religion out of it...it has no place in a discussion of scientific issues like oil and its origin/supply etc.

Edited June 1, 2011 by Rob Hall

[LDO]

  On 6/1/2011 at 6:18 AM, Rob Hall said:

Jarius needs to keep is religion out of it...it has no place in a discussion of scientific issues like oil and its origin/supply etc.

When I posted earlier, I had only read the last message (Jairus's). After I saw your message, I read the whole thread. Wow. A whole lotta wackiness goin' on.

There's a lot of oil in sand in North America. One of our fellow posters makes his living off of it. He drives a truck in a Canadian oil field.

I am serious about Methane, though. I think it can be a viable fuel, and sourced from human poo. We already have very effective means of collecting it. It's not like we would need to get millions of people to follow cows around with shovels, then burn fuel getting it to a processing plant.

Oil will be hard to replace. I think that new fuels will come from a variety of sources; natural gas, methane, diesel from algae, etc. I also think that small diesels have lots of potential. There are already small diesels in Europe that get better mileage than a Prius, and they don't have a battery that visited several continents during manufacture and need to be thrown away one day.

[Harold]

What we'll end up with is a bunch of wheeled wiffle balls that the average moron can crash into a solid object while texting a message to his insurance agent. Cars that can parallel park? Rear view video cameras? C'mon, how hard is it to look over your right shoulder and out the back window while backing up a car? The fact that parallel parking requires depth perception and a small dose of abstract thought (back up to this point, turn the wheel now, the back of my car is there) doesn't bode well for the intelligence level of the average American.

[Guest]

  On 6/1/2011 at 6:18 AM, Rob Hall said:

Jarius needs to keep is religion out of it...it has no place in a discussion of scientific issues like oil and its origin/supply etc.

What are you so afraid of? He didnt even mention religion, the closest thing to that was creator, small c, not God, big g.

[MrObsessive]

Jairus, everything you've said I agree 100%!

[charlie8575]

Lee made some very interesting points, natural gas is probably, given current development, the best long-term solution. New sources can always be made and found.

As to the human component- I believe Lee is also more right that not, especially the human sources. We can start by collecting from most seats of government!

Lee, I believe is also correct in that synthetically-produced diesel will also be a good choice in the long run. Algae is near-limitless in supply, and the processes used to make petroleum-like substances are well under development (using tallow, algae, etc.,) and I think they'll be commercially-viable in the nearer, rather than distant, future.

We as Americans need to get over our phobia of diesel engines. Diesel, produced from synthetic sources, burns very cleanly and is about as efficient as crude oil diesel.

Charlie Larkin

[Harry P.]

  On 6/1/2011 at 12:34 PM, MrObsessive said:

Jairus, everything you've said I agree 100%!

Except the part where he said we'll never run out of oil.

There's only so much oil in the ground. It's a finite amount, and there's no more being produced. We will run out of oil at some point. When, nobody knows...but the day will come when it's all gone. It's inevitable.

[MrObsessive]

Hmmm............