Scale auto renaissance?

[Aaronw]

Scale Auto used to do a yearly poll of "most wanted" kit subjects, and a Hudson was either near to or at the top of that "most wanted" list for years. If there ever was a particular kit that there was a strong and definite demand for, it was a Hudson.

Why someone didn't come out with one years ago, I can't say. But Moebius answered a demand that they knew was out there. No sane businessman would invest in producing a particular kit if they didn't feel there was enough demand to recover their costs and make a profit. To do that is business suicide.

Magazine polls have just as frequently been used to point out massive flops (Monogram 1/48 PBY, Hasegawa 1/48 Seaking).

Mobieus comes along and takes a risk with the Hudson which seems to be doing well, and now we have Revell doing a 1950 Oldsmobile, so there was obviously something there. Five years ago I am quite sure I would have seen many comments like yours about the trucks being directed at these two kits (if they were a good idea they would have been done years ago).

Obviously trucks can't be money losers as too many have been offered over the years (and I'm not talking about re-issues). The problem I see is where the kit makers put their efforts. The Shortbed 1/2 ton was popular with hotrodders into the early 70s, that doesn't seem to be the case today, so it shouldn't be a surprise that the '99 Chevy 2wd shortbed 1500 wasn't a run away success. People shouldn't confuse lack of effort with lack of interest.

Are the cars Trumpeter chose to do failures due to being bad subjects or a poor effort? Do you think the Monte Carlo would have sold better if done by Revell?

Edited October 22, 2011 by Aaronw

[Jantrix]

The choice of a new tool 50 Olds kinda baffles me, but so do a lot of other things. Difficult to appreciate the demographics that called out for that one.

After seeing 8145 threads on "what would you like to see kitted" I can tell you that there really wasn't a huge outcry for a '50 Olds. What there was a LOT of outcry for was ANY 50's era non-Chevy GM product. Face it, there are a lot of options for scale Chevys from 1951-1959. But nothing from Buick, Olds and Pontiac from the same time frame. Revell simply did a little research and picked the '50 Olds. I applaud their excellent choice. I have put off getting the Hudson and 48 Ford at the prospect of getting a couple of these.

Edited October 22, 2011 by Jantrix

[Aaronw]

There may be a renaissance of plastic kits going on at the moment (I'm not so sure that there actually is one going on, but for the sake of argument let's say there is)...

Where it gets really tricky is just a few years from now.

Today the average modeler has no way to create his own kit. Acquiring the machinery and equipment needed to produce an injection-molded kit is completely out of the question... even a large modeling club doesn't have even close to the $$$ it would take to do that. And resin casting complete kits, while possible, is also too expensive and labor-intensive to make sense for the average modeler looking to only make something for himself to get involved in.

But very soon the 3-D rapid prototyping technology is going to be so common that they'll be selling 3-D printers at Walmart for a hundred bucks. You'll see... it's not that far away.

And with the continued evolution and refinement of RP technology, maybe the model kit manufacturers will look at selling models in a whole new way: No more factories filled with huge mega-buck injection-molding machines, no more expensive tooling to cut, no more boxes to fill and ship. Maybe they do a scan of a given car and sell the data on their website at their "download center," the same way we now can buy songs.

No more tooling costs means more money to pay for the technology needed to scan more subjetcs, and thereby offer a far wider selection of subjects. Imagine being able to go to Revell's site (or anyone else)... clicking on the "Download Center" icon, picking out which model(s) you want... and with the click of a mouse you instantly download the data for the kit you want. Then just plug the data into your desktop 3-D printer and output your own model... in whatever scale you want!

That scenario is coming soon. It's inevitable. But as cool as that sounds, there are going to be problems the kit sellers are going to have to solve. How do they stop someone from buying a particular model's "data-pak" and then that someone just giving it to all their friends, just like we all share music and video files? Or what's to stop someone from buying a particular kit's "data-pak" and then offering to sell copies to others?

The music industry had to deal with the digital age. In some ways they're still working on it. The availability of music in digital form for anyone with a computer to be able to just go and get it for free forced the music industry to re-invent itself as far as how their product is made available. The model companies are going to be facing the same problems very soon.

Agree with you on this one, big changes coming, most for the good in my opinion. In some ways I see the future as going back to the old days of guys carving model airplanes from wood, only with much higher detail. Technology is going to open up some really neat options for those willing to embrace it. Just think in a few years we will be able to design and print out our own custom wheels etc (actually we can now, but it is still a bit on the pricy side).

Edited October 22, 2011 by Aaronw

[Luc Janssens]

Well I'm amazed at all the good stuff coming out over the next year. I mean between the Hudson, '48 Ford, Revell's other new kits, IMC bringing back some old favorites, and Round 2 knocking our socks off we're are smack dab in the middle of a great time to be a scale auto modeler. Not since the 70's have we seen so much interest from the model companies. AND, wonder of wonders, it seems aimed towards the older, more established builders. No donks, tuners or monster trucks (or at least not much) which are released mostly to bring in the kids.

It seems that the companies have realized that the older established builders that are buying 2-100 copies of each kit are the demographic they should be aiming for and it and it's about time I say.

Are we seeing a scale auto renaissance?

Yes we're seeing some great subjects materialize, but...one thing sticks out when reading Gerry Paquette post about the new releases, and that is that a bowtie snapper is the bestseller at Revell...

[Harry P.]

Obviously trucks can't be money losers as too many have been offered over the years (and I'm not talking about re-issues). The problem I see is where the kit makers put their efforts. The Shortbed 1/2 ton was popular with hotrodders into the early 70s, that doesn't seem to be the case today, so it shouldn't be a surprise that the '99 Chevy 2wd shortbed 1500 wasn't a run away success. People shouldn't confuse lack of effort with lack of interest.

Are the cars Trumpeter chose to do failures due to being bad subjects or a poor effort? Do you think the Monte Carlo would have sold better if done by Revell?

I can't tell you exactly why a particular subject gets the ok to be produced. It's a combination of several things... research, consumer feedback, probably also a bit of gut feeling or educated guess as to what would or would not sell. But the bottom line driving every decision is money. Every business is in business to make money. If a kitmaker thinks that releasing a particular subject will be profitable, they'll release it. Now, their instincts may be wrong... there's no guarantee that a given subject will sell well enough to pay back the investment. But you can bet that any model kit released was done so with the expectation that it would be profitable to do so.

I still say that if the kitmakers felt that a new model pickup would be profitable to do, they'd do it! Why would any reasonable business exec not put out a kit that they were convinced would sell well? It seems to me that the lack of new pickup kits reflects the kit manufacturer's belief that it just wouldn't make economic sense to release any. Because if they saw $$$ to be made there, they'd do it!

[Harry P.]

Obviously trucks can't be money losers as too many have been offered over the years...

Imaginary meeting between model kit manufacturer's top-level execs:

Exec A: Hey, you know all of our research and feedback from consumers is telling us that there's this huge demand for an all-new pickup kit out there. I mean, everyone wants one!

Exec B: Yeah, I'm telling you... there is such a huge demand for a new pickup kit that if we produce one we'll be practically guaranteed a monster hit! I mean, come on! The people are frantic for a new pickup kit. All of our best information tells us that a new pickup kit would be a runaway best-seller.

Exec C: I agree. Based on all of our best information, a new pickup kit would be a big money maker for us. It's a can't miss opportunity. We'd be crazy to pass this up!

Head Honcho: Nah. I pass. Sure a new pickup kit would be a big seller, we all know that. But you know what? We already make enough money as is.

Do you think that scenario is likely to play out among the kit manufacturers?

[Chuck Most]

I'd still have to say there'd be much more demand for a contemporary pickup than, say, a '50 Olds or a base-model '57 Ford (and yes, I do intend on buying those kits when/if Revell puts them out). When the kit manufacturers milk the last drop out of their tooling dollars and don't have anything left, I'm sure they'll wish they'd diversified their selections just a tad.

[Brett Barrow]

I wonder how the Revell '99 Silverado sold since it's release???

Like a dog.

Monogram released a kit of the 1GN S-10 (well, two counting the later Revell Syclone), AMT tooled up all new 2GN S-Series pickups in both Chevy and GMC versions, as well as a Ranger kit, and Lindberg tooled up Nissan and Toyota compact pickups, the 2GN Dakota extended cab, a 2GN S-10 Blazer and Sonoma 4x4, and that's only the mid-size and compacts. Lots of Ford F-series, Silverados, and Dodge Ram full-size pickups have been done by Revell, AMT, and Lindberg, too, in several versions- Flaresides, extended cabs, dually, etc. Yes, some were basically re-boxed promos, but my point is the selection is quite broad...and I didn't even mention the Aoshima. Fujimi, etc. "foreign" pickup kits.

Now, if you're clammoring for a new/current/recent pickup kit, then yes, you're out of luck. I pretty much agree with Harry on this one- if the demand and potential sales profits were deemed to be sufficient to produce such a kit, we would've seen it produced.

I guess all this debate proves what the O.P. siad- we have it quite good right now.

This is the kind of stuff they did when they were in the big box stores, because that's what the big box stores wanted them to do. And those kits have zero sustainability, but one massive run for the big box stores would be enough to pay for the tooling costs, so it wasn't much of a risk. That ship has sailed, those days are over. At that time the sales of that type of stuff subsidized the development of the more esoteric stuff that was a personal favorite of the designer or company executive. Lots of those great 90's AMT and Revellogram kits ('59 Caddys and Chevys, 60 Starliner, 62 Catalina, 48 and 40 Fords etc... are a few that pop into my mind) came about that way, just because one person wanted to do them and the companies were flush with money from the mass merchants. Market research was non-existant. They just did what the chain stores told them to do and then used the money to fund their personal projects. We got some great kits out of that time, but we got some steaming piles of _____ as well...

[Harry P.]

When the kit manufacturers milk the last drop out of their tooling dollars and don't have anything left, I'm sure they'll wish they'd diversified their selections just a tad.

"Milking the last drop out of their tooling dollars" falls under the "Our Accountants Tell Us That's a Smart Business Decision" category.

[Harry P.]

This is the kind of stuff they did when they were in the big box stores, because that's what the big box stores wanted them to do. And those kits have zero sustainability, but one massive run for the big box stores would be enough to pay for the tooling costs, so it wasn't much of a risk. That ship has sailed, those days are over. At that time the sales of that type of stuff subsidized the development of the more esoteric stuff that was a personal favorite of the designer or company executive.

Great point. The way model car kits are marketed today has changed, and the business model for the manufacturer has changed too. No more "one huge hit covers the cost of a few other kits" mentality. Now every kit released has to stand on its own.

[peekay]

53 Hudson, 50 Oldsmobile... are we on a path that might eventually lead to an MkII Ford Zephyr/Zodiac?

(Or did I forget my pills this morning.....)

[Chuck Most]

"Milking the last drop out of their tooling dollars" falls under the "Our Accountants Tell Us That's a Smart Business Decision" category.

Well, just because someone's an accountant doesn't mean they're capable of providing sound advice for a business (cough, cough, Government Motors).

[Harry P.]

Well, just because someone's an accountant doesn't mean they're capable of providing sound advice for a business (cough, cough, Government Motors).

I doubt that it was the accountants who ran GM into the ground. But the bottom line in any business decision is always money. Whenever any talk of producing any product starts up, question #1 is "Are there enough potential sales out there for us to make a profit on this thing?"

Now, a big multi-billion dollar outfit like GM has a certain amount of flexibility. They can produce a car and actually sell it at a per unit loss... if that car creates enough interest in the brand to actually drive customers to buy some other car from them. That's why carmakers produce "halo cars."

But a model kit manufacturer deals in much smaller numbers and a much smaller customer base... they don't have the luxury of juggling numbers like that. They can't release a flop of a kit too many times, or they're in big trouble.

[sjordan2]

I wonder if the model companies are misled by the kind of kits that are being built out there by modelers, and are represented on forums like this. Modelers build the kits that are available, like a '32 ford, Pontiac GTO, Mustangs, Camaros,, General Lees, etc., etc., etc, whether they come from eBay or somewhere else. Ferrari fans get their fixes on new cars, but not so for other kinds of fans. That's all we've got. The companies figure "That's what modelers build, so that's what they want." Why tool something new?

Maybe that's why we see the same old stuff being reissued, and modified new versions of all those. Good for Moebius for identifying other ways to go. I would agree with Harry that companies like Revell might do some market research, but these are not giant corporations, and they may not have the funds to do particularly in-depth research. For example, the ad agency I worked for most recently would run focus groups for major regional advertisers that interviewed up to 30 people. In launching one new product, Procter & Gamble will interview hundreds, if not thousands, and produce test advertising costing millions that may never run, for a product that never goes to market.

Edited October 22, 2011 by sjordan2

[Harry P.]

I wonder if the model companies are misled by the kind of kits that are being built out there by modelers, and are represented on forums like this. Modelers build the kits that are available, like a '32 ford, Pontiac GTO, Mustangs, Camaros,, General Lees, etc., etc., etc, whether they come from eBay or somewhere else. Ferrari fans get their fixes on new cars, but not so for other kinds of fans. That's all we've got.

Maybe that's why we see the same old stuff being reissued, and modified new versions of all those. Good for Moebius for identifying other ways to go. I would agree with Harry that companies like Revell might do some market research, but these are not giant corporations, and they may not have the funds to do particularly in-depth research. For example, the ad agency I worked for most recently would run focus groups for major regional advertisers that interviewed up to 30 people. In launching one new product, Procter & Gamble will interview hundreds, if not thousands, and produce test advertising costing millions that may never run.

I'd bet that a lot of the research model companies do is not necessarily "formal" market research where they sit people in a room and directly gather opinions. I think a lot of it is done "on the street" at model shows and contests, by monitoring web sites and model forums, and just in general keeping their ears open for any and all customer feedback. It's true that Moebius, for example, didn't spend a few million on "research" before they decided to pull the trigger on the Hudson. But there are ways to gather market research other than the "traditional" way.

[sjordan2]

I'd bet that a lot of the research model companies do is not necessarily "formal" market research where they sit people in a room and directly gather opinions. I think a lot of it is done "on the street" at model shows and contests, by monitoring web sites and model forums, and just in general keeping their ears open for any and all customer feedback. It's true that Moebius, for example, didn't spend a few million on "research" before they decided to pull the trigger on the Hudson. But there are ways to gather market research other than the "traditional" way.

I agree. And the big question is how well the research is interpreted, which takes some reasonably sharp people. It's probably a good thing that Revell doesn't totally rely on car models for their income.

[Brett Barrow]

"Milking the last drop out of their tooling dollars" falls under the "Our Accountants Tell Us That's a Smart Business Decision" category.

Exactly. The 48 Ford has been out for one month and it's already the best-selling car model kit of this calendar year, at least for my company (I don't know if it's Revell's top seller, but it is for us). If that's milking the last drop, then keep it up (remember I sell these things for a living). Last year's top car kit was the Hemi Dart, even with all it's faults and flaws. The companies are not going to do a subject that they can't get multiple kits out of anymore. That's been the genius of kits like the 32 Ford, there is a last drop to milk even years down the line.

[Art Anderson]

Well I'm amazed at all the good stuff coming out over the next year. I mean between the Hudson, '48 Ford, Revell's other new kits, IMC bringing back some old favorites, and Round 2 knocking our socks off we're are smack dab in the middle of a great time to be a scale auto modeler. Not since the 70's have we seen so much interest from the model companies. AND, wonder of wonders, it seems aimed towards the older, more established builders. No donks, tuners or monster trucks (or at least not much) which are released mostly to bring in the kids.

It seems that the companies have realized that the older established builders that are buying 2-100 copies of each kit are the demographic they should be aiming for and it and it's about time I say.

Are we seeing a scale auto renaissance?

A well-known modeler whom I have known since the mid-70's propounded to me 12-13 yrs ago about the coming demise of this hobby--little did he understand that our hobby goes on and on and on. Old modelers die, new modelers enter the fray (albeit at an older age than we kids were, growing up with the hobby in the 50's and 60's). Old companies go out of business, only to be replaced by new ones. I refuse to lament that we aren't in as large numbers as we were 40-50 years ago--those were the years when model car building was a fad of immense proportions--times change, other interests have entered into our lives--but still, there are styrene kits being cranked out, and the paints, glues, tools and aftermarket (50 years ago, we didn't even know what an aftermarket was, let alone the very word!), for some odd reason: Geez, there's a market out there for the stuff!

Art

[Darin Bastedo]

Sorry- EVERYBODY I know wants more light truck kits. That's 100% of whatever demographic I'm in. And judging from what I've read here and other forums, it isn't just a 'Central Michigan' thing.

I touched on this in a different thread, but I feel it's worth repeating here. Which truck? You say everyone you know wants a light truck but I bet they all don't want the same one. Do they do the Ford Dodge or chevy? Or perhaps since it hasn't been done to death the do a toyota or nissan. Do they want a long bed/ short bed? crew cab, or extended cab/ maybe they want a standard cab sportside? The problem is there are simply too many choices. If you did a letter writing campian similar to the one that got us the Revell Caprice police car or the AMT 66 Nova. which truck would you push for? With something simple like a 1965 GTO all they have to consider is Coupe or convertible, and what optiona parts do we include?.

[Darin Bastedo]

Just think...one day we'll be able to upload a CAD of our favorite vehicle, the 3D printer will spit out accurate, scaled to whatever- size-we-choose assembly parts, and all from the comfort of our own home...

I'll be able to build that Yugo after all

I know of one resin caster already that is using this technology. In the next decade it should be cheap enough for all of them to use it.

[Darin Bastedo]

Obviously the 77 T-bird

The 65 GTO is iconic for which age group? My initial post was in response to someone pointing out that the 'younger' modellers are left out, and I have to agree. A 65 GTO does nothing for me other than me having seen one in an extremely stupid movie. Those muscle cars were well before my time, which started pretty much when the American model kit industry left off in the Seventies.

I don't know how things are in the UK, but here the 77 T-bird is completely off the young people's radar.

The diecast manufactureres don't seem to have this fear. They release stuff nobody would have even thought about and it sells surprisingly well.

However, I will stand corrected if the 53 Hudson, 50 Olds and 57 baseline Ford will sell well, I wish they do, but they won't get my custom for one.

What has been said is that today's technology makes it a lot easier to tool up new kits, so there is the chance to do some oddballs as well. I said what I want and I will keep saying it. Who knows...

Oh, and please no new 65 GTO. Not as long as there is paint left I can watch dry.

[Art Anderson]

I wonder if the model companies are misled by the kind of kits that are being built out there by modelers, and are represented on forums like this. Modelers build the kits that are available, like a '32 ford, Pontiac GTO, Mustangs, Camaros,, General Lees, etc., etc., etc, whether they come from eBay or somewhere else. Ferrari fans get their fixes on new cars, but not so for other kinds of fans. That's all we've got. The companies figure "That's what modelers build, so that's what they want." Why tool something new? Maybe that's why we see the same old stuff being reissued, and modified new versions of all those. Good for Moebius for identifying other ways to go. I would agree with Harry that companies like Revell might do some market research, but these are not giant corporations, and they may not have the funds to do particularly in-depth research. For example, the ad agency I worked for most recently would run focus groups for major regional advertisers that interviewed up to 30 people. In launching one new product, Procter & Gamble will interview hundreds, if not thousands, and produce test advertising costing millions that may never run, for a product that never goes to market.

I'm always reminded that it was high-dollar market research that gave the world the "Utopian Turtletop", AKA the Edsel.

Art

[Chuck Most]

I touched on this in a different thread, but I feel it's worth repeating here. Which truck? You say everyone you know wants a light truck but I bet they all don't want the same one. Do they do the Ford Dodge or chevy? Or perhaps since it hasn't been done to death the do a toyota or nissan. Do they want a long bed/ short bed? crew cab, or extended cab/ maybe they want a standard cab sportside? The problem is there are simply too many choices. If you did a letter writing campian similar to the one that got us the Revell Caprice police car or the AMT 66 Nova. which truck would you push for? With something simple like a 1965 GTO all they have to consider is Coupe or convertible, and what optiona parts do we include?.

Any of the three would make them happy- a few of them wouldn't mind a Nissan Titan. And you did touch on one BIG stumbling block for a truck kit (you did leave out two or four wheel drive, though ). But even then- a crew cab shortbed kit could share a chassis and quite a few parts with a reg cab long bed. Since most ot today's 'hot selling' kits these days are modified retools of other kits, why not create a platform that you can dip back into for future issues? Revell has proven themselves quite adept at that the last few years, I'm sure the other manufacturers could follow suit. But to answer your question- the easiest thing to do would be to produce a crew cab short bed variant. That seems to be the most common type of pickup on the road today,and the hardcore guys can cut down the cab to create an extended or regular cab and use the old cab section to lenthen the bed. And even if only one body style pr make was kitted, it wouldn't take more than a few months for the resin guys to offer up variants. And I'd be happy seeing more curbside style kits- since when has it been chiseled into rock that a kit MUST HAVE full engine and chassis detail? Everybody seems to hem and haw over the latest Tamiya or Fujimi whatchamacallit, and they are good kits, but the majority of them are curbsides. If somebody kitted, say, an F-250 Harley Edition and it was a curbside with sealed hood and coster chassis, you'd hear no complaints at all from me about it.

[Harry P.]

I'm always reminded that it was high-dollar market research that gave the world the "Utopian Turtletop", AKA the Edsel.

Art

And "New Coke"...

[martinfan5]

I know they are a lot of newer cars kits being tooled by the Japanese manufacturers , but there are down sides to those kits as well, most are curbside, and the price for the kits are a lot more. No I am not saying I want to see more Prius kits being made, or cars along those lines. I just want to see them bring out a few newer cars a year, and by newer I mean maybe 80's- 90's or even early 2000's.

I completely understand the market is aimed at 40 years old and up, but as what happens if you forget the younger group, say my age group of the 30 year olds, or even a little younger, if they dont gives us kits that we can relate to and what to build , whats going to keep us interested in buying there kits. would you think the manufactures would want to try and keeps around so when we are in the target age range, we will still be buying there kits?

Just a thought, and dont think I have anything against the kit manufactures for what they are releasing , I dont, I just can not relate to half of whats being produced or reissued, so there for I will not spend my money on those kits. I buy kits of cars that I have an interest or can relate to, plain an simple.

All i am saying if the kit manufacturers what to be around when their target demo is no longer buying kits, they should want to keep the younger modelers interested at the same time.

And yes I want more trucks kits as well

Edited October 22, 2011 by martinfan5