Is our hobby, growing or skrinking?

[slusher]

l see more and more of all ages in the model lsle at Hobby Lobby. l saw three young men buying Challenger kits and was surprised it was the old Challenger not the new one.

[Harry P.]

Was there ever a TV ad for model cars? l have not ever seen one if there was. l do agree with Bill, Revell did get alot of advertising with Stacey David and the model contest.

Many years ago there was a show on PBS called "Adventures in Scale Modeling," that featured model cars and other types of models, too. It was basically a "TV magazine" type of show, and one of the underwriters (sponsors) was a model car company (don't remember which one... Revell?).

[sjordan2]

GMP has done some TV in the past for their diecasts -- a collector activity, not for builders. I believe the main venue was Barrett-Jackson.

[slowlylearning]

There are 'pre-modified' Diecast cars that have become wildly popular, that could be another thing stopping people from buying models to modify themselves. Although there is a big following for out of the box builds, I can only speak from my experience.

[Art Anderson]

Many years ago there was a show on PBS called "Adventures in Scale Modeling," that featured model cars and other types of models, too. It was basically a "TV magazine" type of show, and one of the underwriters (sponsors) was a model car company (don't remember which one... Revell?).

"Adventures in Scale Modeling" was underwritten by the Testors Corporation.

Art

[Art Anderson]

An old adage in biology, which any sociologist, even a business management professor almost assuredly knows, and repeats: "An organism must grow in order to survive. When it stops growing, it starts to die" (meaning that even our bodies must continue to grow, replace dead cells wherever needed or possible in order to survive.

This adage is just as true with any group of people, informal (the overall population of model car hobbyists) or formal (like an organized model car club) as it is with living organisms:

"An organization (you can substitute "model car kit marketplace" here) must grow in order to survive. When it stops growing, it starts to die." What that means is, that as modelers either quit, or die--go away for whatever reason, unless there are new modelers entering the hobby and its marketplace, eventually model car building itself will die away--be a thing of the past that is no longer done.

If one thinks about that--this hobby has grown, and it has shrunk, several times since it truly began over 60 years ago. But yet, model car building is still around as a hobby sufficiently large to make a market not only for model car kits, but a constantly changing and evolving group of industries that support and supply it.

"The rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated!" --Samuel Clemens a/k/a Mark Twain

Art

[bbowser]

This thread is one of the big reasons I like this forum, a topic of obvious interest with multiple well reasoned viewpoints. As Art says, the hobby has grown and shrunk many times over the last half century yet it is still here and seems to be thriving if you judge by new and re- releases. I can relate to being teased about playing with "toy cars", hence I don't spend much time passing out leaflets at the airport . I see cool things ahead with the advent of scanner and 3D printing technology taking us places we haven't even thought of yet.

[Tom Geiger]

That statement isn't valid, you have absolutely no way of proving that.

Just because a person is active on an online hobby forum doesn't necessarily correlate to that person spending more $$$ on the hobby than a "passive" modeler. In fact, a so-called "passive" modeler might be so involved in building (and buying) that he has no time or desire for online forums or entering contests.

Like me, for example. I have never entered a contest, but I'll bet I spend many times more in a year on the hobby than most "active" modelers who enter contests. And I'm not the only one.

Harry it's just subjective opinion, no I don't have a published report saying it. Just look at the "What Did You Get Today" thread on this board. Folks on this board regularly buy dozens of kits at a time. People who attend shows leave with bags of kits, and people buy dozens of kits from vendors at club meetings. I know of two where prominent dealers attend.

I am not disputing that we are a very small part of overall kits sales. 10% by some accounts down to 1%. And I understand that new kit releases have to be marketed to the larger audience.

All I'm saying is that we, as a very small group, consume many more models than the passive guy who may hit the hobby shop for a kit every other month. And if he was buying a dozen kits a month, that would get him membership in our exclusive society!

And yes, you are included. You have model book credits, moderate a message board as well as being on staff of the magazine. You are into this hobby up to your neck, so you indeed are part of the lunatic fringe!

Edited August 30, 2013 by Tom Geiger

[Harry P.]

And yes, you are included. You have model book credits, moderate a message board as well as being on staff of the magazine. You are into this hobby up to your neck, so you indeed are part of the lunatic fringe!

Yeah, aside from the contest scene, I guess you're right!

[Scott Colmer]

This has been a really interesting topic. At one time I asked how many of "us" are there. "Us" being serious car modelers. The guess was about 30,000 world wide. It does not seem like a lot.

As far as the longevity of this hobby, I was trying to think of some type of similiar creative construction pass time that either continued on or fadded away as times moved on. I could only think of wooden model airplanes. I do not know how popular they had been at one time, but they have endured.

So here is my guess: The bulk of us started building model cars in the 60s and 70's. Many tell the same story- I did it as a kid and got back to it as an older adult. Many never really stopped. Many of us rediscovered our favorite hobby the republication of model magazines and show coverage in 1:1 mags. The internet brought us all together. Remember searching "Car Models" for the fist time? Not much. Now we have a huge community. That's good stuff.

Where will it go? The way I see it, the first generation will be going away. (Unless we can upload our conscientious into a very dexterous robot.) I think they/we are the largest part of our group. Once the number of builders declines enough there will not be enough buyers for mass produced kits at current prices. Either raise the price or stop producing. The market will decline. It may not go away - which takes me back to the wooden airplane thing- I think the model car populatuion will decline because there will be less low cost options. Some will still do it because it really is fun.

I do have plans in my will to sell my stash so they do not hit the dumpster. Someone will enjoy what I can't find time to build. Who know - maybe old kits and beenie babies will be come uber collectible.

Scott

[johnbuzzed]

When I'm at Hobby Lobby or Michael's, should I see someone who looks "lost" or very curious while looking at the models and supplies, I'll try to offer some advice on paints, good kits for a beginner, etc. It helps to keep the hobby going and might just prevent a project from becoming a projectile. If there's time, I'll even mention the local club(s) and contests. Today's beginner could be tomorrow's long-experienced modeler (like so many of us), and I would like to think that I was able to help keep the continuum going.

I honestly don't know what the hobby is doing. The world is changing at an almost frightening speed, especially as we get older, and there are too many variables for me to make any determination. Those of you who can are better than I.

[Ace-Garageguy]

Whether growing or shrinking, at THIS MOMENT the hobby is in the middle of a golden-age unsurpassed in history. Any of the old classic kits can easily be had for a little investment in time and money, manufacturers continue to release new subject matter that's (for the most part) well tooled and researched, popular vintage kits are being re-released and re-tooled to original configuration on occasion, and the aftermarket support, though a difficult business to make money in for sure, continues to supply a multitude of first-rate detailing and scratchbuilding options. The emerging possibilities that 3D printing offer are well on the way to a workbench-near-you, so to my mind, all things considered, the immediate future looks pretty good indeed.

[sjordan2]

Doing this kind of stuff requires new market research plus corporate experience. I see all kinds of OPINIONS on this thread, but nothing with factual information based on quantitative research. Is it too much to ask if companies like Revell have actual, numeric research? If not, the ability to deliver new kits of interest to the widest number of buyers is useless -- you can't base the kind of research that's necessary to offer new kits based on intuition alone without that kind of information.

But opinions and guessing, without actual knowledge, are the stock-in-trade of these kinds of threads.

Edited August 30, 2013 by sjordan2

[Scott Colmer]

"But opinions and guessing, without actual knowledge, are the stock-in-trade of these kinds of threads."

Psssssssssss . Sound of air leaving the balloon.

I do agree with you Skip, but... how can we speculate if you want to deal in facts?

Edited August 30, 2013 by Scott Colmer

[Chris White]

I would have to assume, based on the passion that we share, that our hobby is safe and in good hands. You guys never cease to amaze me, and this forum does not disappoint either. Thanks to everyone for the opinions and comments.

[Tom Geiger]

But opinions and guessing, without actual knowledge, are the stock-in-trade of these kinds of threads.

It is interesting to see the varied opinions of modelers of varying experience, tastes and understanding of the market. As long as we keep it civil it's a good read. Armchair quarterbacking is fine, but putting up the money to fund the idea is where the rubber meets the road!

Edited August 30, 2013 by Tom Geiger

[sjordan2]

"But opinions and guessing, without actual knowledge, are the stock-in-trade of these kinds of threads."

Psssssssssss . Sound of air leaving the balloon.

I do agree with you Skip, but... how can we speculate if you want to deal in facts?

Well said.

[Green Duster]

The models have gotten more pricey cause of the royalties to the 1:1 manufactures. Cost of the price of plastic has gone up some. But not that much and

everybody has to get there paws in our pockets. I don't see the hobby getting bigger. But should level off for about 7-10 years. Then who knows what will

happen then. With the advent of 3-D printers. We could just by the program for each model and "mold" our own. For about $80. for a snap kit.

Just my 2 cents worth.

[slusher]

The models have gotten more pricey cause of the royalties to the 1:1 manufactures. Cost of the price of plastic has gone up some. But not that much and

everybody has to get there paws in our pockets. I don't see the hobby getting bigger. But should level off for about 7-10 years. Then who knows what will

happen then. With the advent of 3-D printers. We could just by the program for each model and "mold" our own. For about $80. for a snap kit.

Just my 2 cents worth.

I know models have went up over the last 5 years but even on a fixed income its still a cheap hobby compared to others and it keeps us home. l have really enjoyed all the opions in this subject...

[niteowl7710]

I think one of the big questions is..."How many of you guys who are retired/getting close to retirement got your kids into modeling?"

Because those people are the tai lend of Gen X, and most of Gen Y. We are the ones that finally have a house, and stabile careers/finances and represent the ongoing "wave" of people experiencing the "Getting back into the hobby" bug this decade. How many late 20's-mid 30's guys rejoin the "party" going forward will determine the overall health of things in 2023. The millenials...they got shafted by the rise of Social Media and the fact their parents would have built models during the 70's (shivers). I think a lot us who have kids still too young to be school age have seen the plague if cell phones and Facebook and are silently resolving to ourselves that OUR kids ain't getting a phone at 10 years old.

Our generation is also having more kids per capita since the baby boomers, and a great many of them will be introduced into the hobby in the next 10 years as well.

Edited August 31, 2013 by niteowl7710

[1930fordpickup]

I believe the pad of paper at the model and toy show are the biggest form of research they use. In the 60's (SE Michigan) AMT brought kits to the schools for kids to build. My uncles and cousins talked of this. I wonder how many years they did this, or if it was a one time thing .

All in all I think the group total has been about same for awhile , with people coming and going.

[Tom Geiger]

I just had an evil thought. With the advent of 3D modeling and affordable printers, maybe this will be the catalyst to bring younger people into modeling. Now that they can create things on the computer and bring them to life in plastic, that might just be the lure to start a whole new generation of modelers! Thoughts?

[Jeff Johnston]

This is a great thread. I really have nothing to add except for my observations.

• I will pay 25 or more bucks for a new model release. I would not have 10 years ago..
• I've seen more releases that interest me in the last 5-7 years (since Wal-Mart stopped selling models) than I did in those days. If I'm a logical thinker I'd think that maybe the big box 5 and 10 dollar kit sales did nothing to help the model companies, or the avid car modeler....I'd have never thought that at the time.
• I buy mo more or no fewer models than I did when Wal Mart or Kay Bee toys (etc) sold kits, thanks to the internet.
• I'm almost 49 yeas old, and usually in the lower range of the age of guys are at the (2) shows I attend.

I definitely feel that its one of the best times to be a model builder. I also think that when I croak (hopefully at an old age. gluing an engine block together with a tube of Testors glue in my hand, If there are no more younger modelers than there will be on car modeling hobby. I also do not feel an obligation to pass the hobby. Though in my heart I'd sure home future generations can enjoy this as much as I have.

Out of what? 3000 models on the table at NNL east? How many are younger modelers (kids) ? 30 ? maybe ? 1% ? (not sure the actual number but its not a lot).

I was into modeling as a kid, then slowed dramatically in my late 20s to my mid 30s, then back again strong at 35 or so. But I had a base...an existing interest. That base no longer exists. I have many friends that are car fanatics who are not at all interested in building. I don't get that.. One guy still has a ton of models form when he was a kid but no interests in building them (and yes I;ve bugged him to sell them to me but he's keeping them LOL)

I still think that the hobby is shrinking in numbers of people into it, though not in the dollars spent. Agree with others that its due to older guys like me willing to spend more;. Again...I have no quantitative data to back it. Like Harry said, this is what these boards are for right ?

Now go buy a model. I'm going to.

JJ

Edited August 31, 2013 by Jeff Johnston

[Eshaver]

I just had an evil thought. With the advent of 3D modeling and affordable printers, maybe this will be the catalyst to bring younger people into modeling. Now that they can create things on the computer and bring them to life in plastic, that might just be the lure to start a whole new generation of modelers! Thoughts?

It's a gamble , Yes . Interesting thought though ..........................

[2000-cvpi]

I think one of the big questions is..."How many of you guys who are retired/getting close to retirement got your kids into modeling?"

Because those people are the tai lend of Gen X, and most of Gen Y. We are the ones that finally have a house, and stabile careers/finances and represent the ongoing "wave" of people experiencing the "Getting back into the hobby" bug this decade. How many late 20's-mid 30's guys rejoin the "party" going forward will determine the overall health of things in 2023. The millenials...they got shafted by the rise of Social Media and the fact their parents would have built models during the 70's (shivers). I think a lot us who have kids still too young to be school age have seen the plague if cell phones and Facebook and are silently resolving to ourselves that OUR kids ain't getting a phone at 10 years old.

Our generation is also having more kids per capita since the baby boomers, and a great many of them will be introduced into the hobby in the next 10 years as well.

My seven year old daughter asked for a cell phone, I told her when she gets a job, she can get a cell phone. Of course she is building theMMustang snap kit right now. So she better get the building bug, I have way too many kits that she could help build.