I'm sure the path they take when tooling an all new kit, is a much more cautioned one, after-all one doesn't sink in 250K for an all new kit, without a rock solid contract and then it's still a (calculated) gamble, will the sales tank, go ballistic, or something in-between, while the licensors cut, is carved in stone, you can only guess or rely on past track records of similar items. One can say whatever you want, about the spin doctors at company x, y, z....but I don't envy their job.