Will Slow Down of Cottage Industry Slow the Hobby?

[Ace-Garageguy]

I don't know if you can compare to this but, years ago I went to Toledo twice a year for the show and swap meet . Fall was always bigger filling all rooms. When they narrowed it down to one day suppliers from afar quit coming because it wasn't worth the travel and expense for one day. Less people led to less people. Today the model show and swap meet would fit into the smallest room of the old building with plenty of room to spare. Like water goin down a bath tub .

A LOT of blame for the demise of the Toledo swap meet comes directly from the internet. Now vendors don't spend the money for gas, hotels, meals, tables, when they can sell on the internet therefore cutting their expenses way back. Back in the early 2000's the place was jammed with vendors, ten years later not so much.

Interesting. Maybe it's a regional thing.

The Atlanta-area ACME NNL-style show is huge compared to ten years back. Vendor spaces sold out, something like 700 models entered last year. All very high quality work too.

[Lunajammer]

The cottage industry very much alive , and there is so much being offered right now, its truly an amazing time for the hobby.   Now maybe for the older subjects yes, it could be slowing down, but for those of us that build new subjects,  its a great time for us.

There is just soooooooo much available right now.

I'll be the first to admit I'm not the most informed modeler, so I find this comment very hopeful. Since I do build mostly the older stuff, I just find the loss of Modelhaus leaving a cavernous hole in the after market. So sometimes I may need to be reminded there are far more resources available than I'm aware of. I hope so anyway.

[keyser]

Wow, that hand grenade looks awful

I haven't been to Toledo in decades, was great show, went with Terry Jessee one year, had a lot of fun. MAMA meet was good, the Oakland show was good too. 

Couple of the San Diego meets were nice. Never been to ATL, I guess I should go. 

Chicago Toy shows any good anymore?

Modelhaus will be missed for anyone that restores builders. It was nice to buy something that needed a few things and get them from Don and Carol, or some of the great kits they did that nobody else would. Going to be a LOT harder to restore/restomod kits and gluebombs now. Plus the huge tire line, the custom parts, the weird stuff. And most of all, the quality, and Don and Carol. 

I've posted about attracting younger people to the hobby, and the Ford snaps that Revell does. Got roundly shouted down, ironically from old guys. I guess the no smart-phone/crank start cars/hygieneopenic folks seen at many swap meets are the future of the hobby. Going to be a big crater, just for the Hoverrounds alone

 

[MrObsessive]

I didn't make a big production out of this earlier, but since the subject's been brought up, I'll make light of it here. I went to the Toledo show last October, and it was the first time I had been there since '08. I have to say going there again was quite disappointing for me as the number of vendors and number of folks attending was not what I remember and frankly it was depressing. 

I ended up leaving early and didn't even take part in the model show.

I was also a bit turned off by literally paying twice for essentially the same show. One admission to get into the vendor area and another fee to participate in the NNL which was literally in the same room. It was sorta like that the last time I went there in '08, but at least the NNL was in a separate building IIRC.

In all my years of attending model contests and shows, that was a first for me to leave a show early, and not even put the cars I brought with me on display. It was that disappointing.

The only really nice bright spot IMO was the night before at the COMA meeting and dinner in Dayton. THAT was certainly worth going to, and if for no other reason to head that way again, I'd like to get to that meeting as I had a nicer time there than at the show the next day.

The cottage industry very much alive , and there is so much being offered right now, its truly an amazing time for the hobby.   Now maybe for the older subjects yes, it could be slowing down, but for those of us that build new subjects,  its a great time for us.

There is just soooooooo much available right now.

You make a very good point Jonathan! While surfing eBay at times for different odds and ends for my kits, I'll see on there a whole LOT of stuff geared for more modern cars. Building cars out of the '50's-'70's is my forte, but I'll jump in to the modern era every once in a while as there are some neat subjects out there to be done. My recent BMW build (as difficult as it was) had been a breath of fresh air for me as it was nice for awhile to get away from BMFing everything, and super-detailing to the Nth degree.

In the future I plan to do more modern cars----------I just wish the domestic kitmakers would put out more of what we see on the roads. Round 2's recent '16 Camaro release I hope is a start to more modern iron be it American or foreign.

[Jon Cole]

Remember the VCR?

In it's day it was cutting edge.......not that many years ago.

Believe me, laser printing, like every other technology, will be perfected & become cheaper than we can imagine.

 

Steve

I doubt there will ever be the demand for 3D printers, like there was for VCR's back in the day. VCR's proliferated because almost every household in America had one.
I don't see a day when every household has a 3D printer. Not even close.
The military figures looked good. So why do they look good, while Shapeway products readily admit their products are grainy to the touch? How similar was the units that printed each?

[StevenGuthmiller]

I doubt there will ever be the demand for 3D printers, like there was for VCR's back in the day. VCR's proliferated because almost every household in America had one.I don't see a day when every household has a 3D printer. Not even close.
 

It's not the "demand" for or the "proliferation" of household 3-D printers that I'm referring to, it's the advancement of the technology.

While there may not be a demand from the general public, 3-D printing "will" make huge strides in the years to come, you can bank on that.

I was just using the VCR as an example of how far we have come in video technology in a very short period of time.

 

Steve

[peteski]

The military figures looked good. So why do they look good, while Shapeway products readily admit their products are grainy to the touch? How similar was the units that printed each?

Because they appear to be rendered on a printer which can print in a resolution magnitudes higher than anything Shapeways owns.  But this comes with a cost. The printer and the material cost for high-res printers are also magnitudes higher than Shapeways units. Not all 3D printers are the same. 

[Art Anderson]

While the staple model kit makers soar to new heights with new offerings and repops, the staple cottage industry seems to be entering the retirement home. It's been easy to take for granted our aftermarket super heroes like the Modelhaus, Billy Gooche decals, Fred Cady and many more. But the business is taxing on the best of them and as they age, at some point they have to put their priorities on life challenges and desires bigger than the hobby. 

Do the new industry offerings offset the cottage industry losses in terms of hobby health or does the quiet exit of after-marketers foretell the quiet exit of modelers in general? What impact is the loss of after-marketers having on your hobby involvement?

What slowdown in the model car aftermarket?  I mean, really now:  Beyond Modelhaus,  there are more model car aftermarket producers now than at any time before--of course, none of the sheer size that Modelhaus attained.  What did change over say, the past 36 years since Modelhaus began offering reproduction replacement parts for promo's and 1960's 3in1 kits has been the vast expansion of such as detail parts, new versions of existing styrene model car kits, decals (Fred Cady may well have been the largest model car decal printer in the late 1970's until his retirement about 10 years ago, there are many more aftermarket decal printers now than ever before--from what I have seen.  Add to the mix all the various aftermarket paint suppliers--where once it was just MCW,  there are any number of small entrepreneurs selling all colors of paint for model cars, in both lacquer and enamel forms.  Were you in a position to be able to attend an NNL East--that is a bigger gathering of model car aftermarket vendors than ever showed up at say, the old Toledo Toy Shows.

As for "Toledo", that show began its decline with the coming of eBay, which took the majority of the top collectible toy dealers out of show halls, and put them online--same with dealers in OOP model kits. Simply put, they no longer had to load up cars, trailers, and vans to drive what often would be a full day each way; all they had to do was put stuff up for auction on the Bay, then when sales happened, box up the item(s) print out shipping labels, and off to USPS, United Parcel, or FEDEX locally.

Art

[my66s55]

Because they appear to be rendered on a printer which can print in a resolution magnitudes higher than anything Shapeways owns.  But this comes with a cost. The printer and the material cost for high-res printers are also magnitudes higher than Shapeways units. Not all 3D printers are the same. 

The pineapple I posted above was printed on a Solus desktop 3d printer that also printed this figure. It is a DLP machine that uses a dlp projector to cure uv resin into a finished product.

This is the same technology I use to create my prints. Yes, the technology to print in such fine setting that the detail is superb and lines disappear is here. Expensive? Not really. And, there are many more machines that will give you a decent result at prices down to 1k. If you are going to do any amount of printing, purchasing may be a good move. Check out their website and look at the gallery of 3d prints this machine produced. I can give you many more examples of dlp and sla machines costing thousands less than Shapeway machines and, in some cases, a better print.

  http://www.junction3d.com/

[peteski]

The pineapple I posted above was printed on a Solus desktop 3d printer that also printed this figure. It is a DLP machine that uses a dlp projector to cure uv resin into a finished product.

 

This is the same technology I use to create my prints. Yes, the technology to print in such fine setting that the detail is superb and lines disappear is here. Expensive? Not really. And, there are many more machines that will give you a decent result at prices down to 1k. If you are going to do any amount of printing, purchasing may be a good move. Check out their website and look at the gallery of 3d prints this machine produced. I can give you many more examples of dlp and sla machines costing thousands less than Shapeway machines and, in some cases, a better print.

  http://www.junction3d.com/

Yes, different printing methods yield different results.  There are also tradeoffs such as the maximum size of the printed object and printing speed.  What is the cost of the resin that you use?  For example, how much did it cost to print that figure?

[my66s55]

I addressed the new developments in print speed in my last post in the 3D printing growing as we speak thread. I also covered what it means as to the print quality. My build plate xy is 5" x 5". My z is 8" deep. X being left to right, y being front to back and z is top to bottom. That means that I have the ability to print something within those figures. Dlp prints are made on the z axis and are many times angled. That leaves me the ability to print many different thing in 1/24-1/25th scale. If I want to make it larger, I only need to use a taller resin vat. As far as the cost of resin to print that figure? I couldn't tell you as I didn't print it. A liter with run anywhere from $60 to $90. I've read that people have printed chess sets for  $.50 a man. I double if that figure cost much more.

 

[peteski]

Sounds like you got yourself a great 3D printing system.  1 liter of resin will go a long way in out hobby (especially if you make your objects hollow).  But without possessing 3D- design skills your machine is just a brick.  You are lucky to have the skills needed to make use of that printer.

[Ace-Garageguy]

 You are lucky to have the skills needed to make use of that printer.

I'd tend to say it's not so much having "luck" as it is having the desire and putting forth the effort to learn the skills.

If you're not intimidated by the computer or learning new things, you CAN learn CAD. Google SketchUp is a simplified FREE 3D modeling program that's FREE for you to download and learn for FREE.

Did I mention it's FREE?

It's a perfect introduction to preparing the kinds of drawings that can be converted to doing 3D printing, and everything you will learn in SketchUp will transfer to other CAD programs you might like to get into later.

http://www.sketchup.com/

[Art Anderson]

While I certainly respect (and admire) the modern technology of 3D printing AND some of the stuff I've seen coming out from that technology in the way of model car stuff--frankly it's going to be a good while before that replaces such as resin-casting.  This, for the simple reason that most all the model aftermarket is "cottage industry" sized, with not a lot of capital being available for seriously high-technology products. 

Art

[peteski]

I'd tend to say it's not so much having "luck" as it is having the desire and putting forth the effort to learn the skills.

If you're not intimidated by the computer or learning new things, you CAN learn CAD. Google SketchUp is a simplified FREE 3D modeling program that's FREE for you to download and learn for FREE. 

I've dabbled with CAD (2D and some 3D) back in the '80s when I worked as a computer tech on Computervision's CAD/CAM systems. Back then I worked with CADDS 4X. 

I have dabbled with SketchUp and while it is intuitive, it seems to lack what I need to design the objects I wont. I even picked up a copy of TurboCAD. But finding the time to to sit down and mess around with these programs is my problem. I would also like some instructor-lead training so I can ask questions.  Ans just like learning other things (like playing music) it takes a lot of practice (read: time) to get proficient with 3D software.  I have so many hobbies and projects going at the same time that I just don't have the time to get experienced with 3D design.  Maybe someday...

[Ace-Garageguy]

I've dabbled with CAD (2D and some 3D) back in the '80s when I worked as a computer tech on Computervision's CAD/CAM systems. Back then I worked with CADDS 4X. 

I have dabbled with SketchUp and while it is intuitive, it seems to lack what I need to design the objects I wont. I even picked up a copy of TurboCAD. But finding the time to to sit down and mess around with these programs is my problem. I would also like some instructor-lead training so I can ask questions.  Ans just like learning other things (like playing music) it takes a lot of practice (read: time) to get proficient with 3D software.  I have so many hobbies and projects going at the same time that I just don't have the time to get experienced with 3D design.  Maybe someday...

My remark wasn't directed specifically at you, sir. It was the all inclusive "you", meaning everyone with enough interest in the topic to be reading the thread.  

I do hear a lot of references here and there as to how "lucky" someone is to have this or that skill. Skill development and luck only go together as far as being God-given the talent to be able to develop a particular skill...and in that, we're not all equal. There are many things I will never be able to become proficient at, no matter how hard I try, because I just don't have the particular talent that's necessary.

On the flip side of that, I'm just as guilty of being unable to find the time to develop the skills that would let me develop printable files for 3D modeling.

But it isn't really about being able to "find the time" either. We all find the time to do the things we really want to do most, whether we admit it to ourselves or not.

In my own case, it's a matter of not prioritizing some things high enough on the life-list to get them done...pure and simple. Choices.

 

[Dave Ambrose]

There are young people building models. They're even doing high quality builds. But, they're building Gundams, not cars. My daughter builds Gundams, and we go to the Gundam Guys show in Fullerton. I'm usually the oldest guy in the room. I think if we made a place for the science fiction modelers, they would come. We'd probably get a lot from each other too.

[1930fordpickup]

There are young people building models. They're even doing high quality builds. But, they're building Gundams, not cars. My daughter builds Gundams, and we go to the Gundam Guys show in Fullerton. I'm usually the oldest guy in the room. I think if we made a place for the science fiction modelers, they would come. We'd probably get a lot from each other too.

Good Idea Dave. I had to look to see what a Gundam was, LOL .Video game and cartoon figures is what they look like to me. 

Why not just put them in All the rest or break that down  more. Is that more work for you ?  

[Tom Geiger]

As for "Toledo", that show began its decline with the coming of eBay, which took the majority of the top collectible toy dealers out of show halls, and put them online--same with dealers in OOP model kits. Simply put, they no longer had to load up cars, trailers, and vans to drive what often would be a full day each way; all they had to do was put stuff up for auction on the Bay, then when sales happened, box up the item(s) print out shipping labels, and off to USPS, United Parcel, or FEDEX locally

I wouldn't blame it on eBay.  Rather it's was the overall decline in the collectors market. It happened overnight. The first Toledo show I went to was the three full halls of all kinds of collectibles. Note that this was a toy show, not a model car show.  It was amazing to roam the aisles and find a vendor who specialized in cap guns from the 1950s, or space toys. It was a grand museum worth browsing even if you didn't have a penny to spend.

Among all the vendors were a lot of sellers of thing like Beanie Babies, collector cards, large scale diecast and Nascar collectibles. Like flicking a light switch, those and many other collectibles areas fell out of fashion.  Just like in the 1960s when the slot car market died instantly.  My daughter was a kid then and wanted a certain Beanie Baby that was selling over $100, so of course she didn't get one!  Later on  found the same one for a dollar and bought it for her!   That's how bad those markets tanked.  That's what killed Toledo.

And everyone paints John Carlile the bad guy. What's happened is simple economics. The hall gets a certain fee. In good times that got spread across many vendors in the sold out show. Cheap tables, vendors made money and John made money.   The hall still gets their fee. Only now it's divided against fewer vendors and I doubt John is making money.  Believe me, I know the math.

And as far as those who complain that they are paying twice, well you ARE attending two different events where two different hosts have expenses.  And that's the cost!

[Mark]

I wouldn't blame it on eBay.  Rather it's was the overall decline in the collectors market. It happened overnight. The first Toledo show I went to was the three full halls of all kinds of collectibles. Note that this was a toy show, not a model car show.  It was amazing to roam the aisles and find a vendor who specialized in cap guns from the 1950s, or space toys. It was a grand museum worth browsing even if you didn't have a penny to spend.

Among all the vendors were a lot of sellers of thing like Beanie Babies, collector cards, large scale diecast and Nascar collectibles. Like flicking a light switch, those and many other collectibles areas fell out of fashion.  Just like in the 1960s when the slot car market died instantly.  My daughter was a kid then and wanted a certain Beanie Baby that was selling over $100, so of course she didn't get one!  Later on  found the same one for a dollar and bought it for her!   That's how bad those markets tanked.  That's what killed Toledo.

And everyone paints John Carlile the bad guy. What's happened is simple economics. The hall gets a certain fee. In good times that got spread across many vendors in the sold out show. Cheap tables, vendors made money and John made money.   The hall still gets their fee. Only now it's divided against fewer vendors and I doubt John is making money.  Believe me, I know the math.

And as far as those who complain that they are paying twice, well you ARE attending two different events where two different hosts have expenses.  And that's the cost!

I set up at Toledo for about five years (first went there to check it out in early '88, set up at at least two shows a year through '93).  I remember that first show; it was huge, bigger than anything like that I'd ever seen.  When my brother and I got to the other end of the building, we noticed people walking in from that end.  Holy cow, there's another whole room!  John Carlisle was always good to deal with.  He's from near where I live, and for some reason he hasn't been able to keep a show going around here.  For a long time, every couple of years he'd try again, and just not get enough traction to keep going.  I've been to other shows of his (not recently, though) in Pennsylvania and Ohio in addition to a few in New York.  I've never been disappointed.

The Beanie Baby/NASCAR diecast/new Hot Wheels vendors helped do in a couple of other shows around here too.  But it's partly the show promoter's fault.  All of a sudden, those new vendors swell the waiting list for tables at a meet, then the promoter gets an inflated ego and starts throwing in new/arbitrary rules and demands, thinking he/she has a bunch of other people to sell a table to if you don't bow and kiss their ring.  After those vendors dry up and fall out of the picture, the original ones have moved on and don't come back. 

The promoter then starts letting in other vendors that water the thing down even further.  One guy putting shows on around here used to send out "toy show" flyers.  His shows were pretty lame to begin with, but this one was practically within walking distance so I went.  I'm standing in line holding a flyer that says "toy show", the guy behind me has one for a "comic book show", the people behind him have one that says "movie memorabilia show", someone else's flyer says "record show"...all the same show!  Probably should have left before handing over the five bucks to get in... 

It's similar to the 1:1 automotive swap meets letting in the chainsaw carvings, wind catchers, cheap tools, and craft vendors.  Before long, what was a decent automotive swap meet becomes a rusty lawn mower bazaar.

[MrObsessive]

And as far as those who complain that they are paying twice, well you ARE attending two different events where two different hosts have expenses.  And that's the cost!

Tom, I gotta disagree with you here. The NNL East doesn't charge two different fees to attend the show, and dare I say the NNL East has become a MUCH better show than Toledo has been for some time. You have quite the number of vendors that set up shop there, and there is not another price to see the models at the same venue.

I dunno, I was just rather put off by it as I could see the models on display at Toledo from literally across the room, but if I wanted to either participate or simply be an observer, I had to "get in line" and pay yet another fee to do that.

EDIT: I should add that perhaps it's time to split things up and let those hosts part company and go their separate ways. If the show (NNL) can't survive on its own merits and has to keep resorting to that kind of business practice for whatever reason, then maybe its time has come and it's time wave goodbye.

Sad, but that's going to happen sooner than later.

Edited September 24, 2016 by MrObsessive

[Art Anderson]

I set up at Toledo for about five years (first went there to check it out in early '88, set up at at least two shows a year through '93).  I remember that first show; it was huge, bigger than anything like that I'd ever seen.  When my brother and I got to the other end of the building, we noticed people walking in from that end.  Holy cow, there's another whole room!  John Carlisle was always good to deal with.  He's from near where I live, and for some reason he hasn't been able to keep a show going around here.  For a long time, every couple of years he'd try again, and just not get enough traction to keep going.  I've been to other shows of his (not recently, though) in Pennsylvania and Ohio in addition to a few in New York.  I've never been disappointed.

The Beanie Baby/NASCAR diecast/new Hot Wheels vendors helped do in a couple of other shows around here too.  But it's partly the show promoter's fault.  All of a sudden, those new vendors swell the waiting list for tables at a meet, then the promoter gets an inflated ego and starts throwing in new/arbitrary rules and demands, thinking he/she has a bunch of other people to sell a table to if you don't bow and kiss their ring.  After those vendors dry up and fall out of the picture, the original ones have moved on and don't come back. 

The promoter then starts letting in other vendors that water the thing down even further.  One guy putting shows on around here used to send out "toy show" flyers.  His shows were pretty lame to begin with, but this one was practically within walking distance so I went.  I'm standing in line holding a flyer that says "toy show", the guy behind me has one for a "comic book show", the people behind him have one that says "movie memorabilia show", someone else's flyer says "record show"...all the same show!  Probably should have left before handing over the five bucks to get in... 

It's similar to the 1:1 automotive swap meets letting in the chainsaw carvings, wind catchers, cheap tools, and craft vendors.  Before long, what was a decent automotive swap meet becomes a rusty lawn mower bazaar.

Tom, and Mark,

I too first attended a Toledo show in 1988, and went back there every year through 1999--so here's my read of it:  When Carlisle an others began promoting "toy shows" aimed at collectors, there were any number of truly classic toys--many vendors peddling antique toys from the late 18th and early 19th Century, up through the 1940's and into the 1950's.By 1995 or so, I noticed that there were very few vendors at Toledo offering such stuff--for who knows what reason?   The next Toledo show I attended was in 1993 with the members of the model car club in South Bend--and it was light-years different.   Toledo had shrunk to less than half what it was just 10 yrs earlier, even though the NNL was as well-attended as any I had been to in years previous.   This really DID coincide with the rapid growth of online auction sites, eBay being by far the largest. When eBay really took off, it took many of those antique toy dealers out of the "Show" business, simply because they could sit at home, photograph their wares, and put them up online, reasonably expecting hundreds of thousands (if not millions!) of browsing enthusiasts to let their mouse's do the walking--and the only mileage those vendors might run up was to drop off packages at USPS, UPS and/or FEDEX--and NO motel bills either!

Swtch to 2015: I attended the "Toledo Collector Toy Fair" which is kind of a misnomer, as it's been in the neighboring city of Sylvania for several years now.   Toy venders were there, but far too much of what I saw was mere garage-sale fodder--and a lot of real junk at that.  The NNL was a mere shadow of what it was just 10 years earlier as well--saw a number of old firends and acquaintances in attendance.

In November 2015, I was a guest of Dave Metzner and Moebius Models at the Detroit NNL--far better crowd, the very large building at Macomb Community College was full, the aisles were full of people looking around, looking to buy.  Very little in the way of "junk" there.  Dave and I went back up to the DAAM model car show & contest earlier this year, and it was even better than the Toy Show as far as vendors and traffic.  

And, for those who feel they must complain about having to pay an admission charge to visit the NNL Natonals--bear in mind that it's John Carlisle who rented the facility, John Carlisle who rented all the tables up front that were used, and John Carlisle who paid for such liability insurance for the event as necessary.  At the original Maumee County Recreation Center location, I would be quite sure that each of the two major buildiings cost him separately, in addition to the smaller banquet hall that was used for the NNL.  Regardless of any feelings I might have about Mr. Carlisle, I do believe he was entitled to charge the promoters of the NNL for the use of that banquet hall that Saturday afternoon and evening, and the organizers of the NNL had every right (and necessity) to charge admission to the NNL separately from the admission charge to the Toy Show.

Art

[Mark]

I only went to the NNL event once during my time doing the Toledo shows, but I didn't have a problem with the separate admission.  I had it figured pretty much as Art says, that the club hosting the NNL had to recover the cost of the room. 

Lately, I've cut most of the "antique toy shows" out of my schedule.  I only set up at a few things a year now: a local 1:1 automotive swap on Super Bowl Sunday, the annual local IPMS event, NNL East, and the Three Rivers show just outside of Pittsburgh.  I've missed another local show the last couple of years (my employer does a fundraiser the same day) but this year they don't conflict with one another...so I'll add that one back in this year.

[martinfan5]

I'll be the first to admit I'm not the most informed modeler, so I find this comment very hopeful. Since I do build mostly the older stuff, I just find the loss of Modelhaus leaving a cavernous hole in the after market. So sometimes I may need to be reminded there are far more resources available than I'm aware of. I hope so anyway.

There is a lot of stuff out there,  and the aftermarket world is thriving ,   and I think we are either right at, or at the very beginning of another transition for the hobby.    I will admit, that the Modelhaus closing up shop is going to leave a big hole, they have been a staple in the hobby longer than I can remember, and I dont think we will see anyone fill that void.